US Climate Bill Falls Short

From OneWorld.net

WASHINGTON - A drastically weakened U.S. climate bill released
Monday favors polluting industries over truly sustainable clean energy
solutions, argues Daphne Wysham, director of a sustainable energy and
economy think tank.

What's the Story?

"Right out of
the starting gate, the [American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009]
provides a ridiculous number of giveaways to industry," writes Wysham,
Institute for Policy Studies fellow and director of the Sustainable
Energy & Economy Network.

Specifically, 85 percent or more of
pollution permits would be given free of cost to the electricity
sector, leaving low- to moderate-income families vulnerable to
inevitable energy price hikes.

The bill would also create the
largest market for carbon emissions in the world. This will enable
industries that pollute above permitted emissions levels to buy carbon
credits from companies that pollute below these levels. However, "the
Government Accountability Office (GAO) claims it's virtually impossible
to verify whether carbon offsets represent real emissions reductions,"
notes Wysham.

Climate Chaos Predicted by CO2 Study

World will have exceeded 2050 safe carbon emissions limit by 2020, scientists say

by Steve Connor for The Independent/UK

The world will overshoot its long-term target on greenhouse gasemissions within two decades. A study has found that the average global temperature will rise above the threshold that could cause dangerous climate change during that time.

(photo: Greenpeace)

Scientists have calculated that the world has already produced about a third of
the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that could be emitted between
2000 and 2050 and still keep within a C rise in global average temperatures.

At the current rate at which CO2 is emitted
globally - which is increasing by 3 per cent a year - countries will have exceeded their total limit of 1,000 billion tons within 20 years,
which would be about 20 years earlier than planned under international obligations. "If we continue burning fossil fuels as we do, we will
have exhausted the carbon budget in merely 20 years, and global warming
will go well beyond C," said Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who led the study, published in
Nature.

"Substantial reductions in global emissions have to begin soon - before 2020. If we wait longer, the required phase-out of carbon emissions will involve tremendous economic costs and technological challenges. We should not forget that a C global mean warming would
take us far beyond the variations that Earth has experienced since we humans have been around."

It is the first time scientists have calculated accurately the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere between 2000 and 2050 and still have a
reasonable chance of avoiding temperature rises higher than C above pre-industrial levels - widely viewed as a "safe" threshold.

The scientists found the total amount of greenhouse gases that could be
released over this time would be equivalent to 1,000 billion tons of
CO2. This is equivalent to using up about 25 per cent of known reserves
of oil, gas and coal, said Bill Hare, a co-author of the study.

The study concluded that the world must agree on a cut in carbon dioxide
emissions of more than 50 per cent by 2050 if the probability of
exceeding a C rise in average temperatures is to be limited to a risk
of 1 in 4.

Climate Change Hitting Entire Arctic Ecosystem

By John Vidal for The Guardian/UK

Extensive climate change is now affecting every form of life in the Arctic, according to a major new assessment by international polar scientists.

In the past four years, air temperatures have increased, sea ice has
declined sharply, surface waters in the Arctic ocean have warmed and
permafrost is in some areas rapidly thawing.

In addition, says the report released today at a Norwegian government seminar, plants and trees are growing more vigorously, snow cover is decreasing 1-2% a year and glaciers are shrinking.

Scientists from Norway, Canada, Russia and the US contributed to the Arctic monitoring and assessment programme (Amap) study, which says new factors such as "black carbon" - soot -
ozone and methane may now be contributing to global and arctic warming as much as carbon dioxide.

"Black carbon and ozone in particular have a strong seasonal pattern that makes their impacts particularly important in the Arctic," it says.

Experts say meeting Global warming goals is unlikely

From Reuters

OSLO/BONN - Global warming is likely to overshoot a 2 degrees

Celsius (3.6 F) rise seen by the European Union and many developing
nations as a trigger for "dangerous" change, a Reuters poll of
scientists showed on Tuesday.

A
mountain is reflected in a bay that used to be covered by the Sheldon
glacier on the Antarctic peninsula, January 14, 2009, file photo. The
glacier has shrunk by about 2 km since 1989, probably because of global
warming. (REUTERS/Alister Doyle)

Nine of 11 experts, who were
among authors of the final summary by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change in 2007 (IPCC), also said the evidence that
mankind was to blame for climate change had grown stronger in the past
two years.

Giving personal views of recent research, most
projected on average a faster melt of summer ice in the Arctic and a
quicker rise in sea levels than estimated in the 2007 report, the most
authoritative overview to date drawing on work by 2,500 experts.

"A
lot of the impacts we're seeing are running ahead of our expectations,"
said William Hare of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Ten
of 11 experts said it was at best "unlikely" -- or less than a
one-third chance -- that the world would manage to limit warming to a 2
degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) rise above pre-industrial levels.

"Scientifically
it can be done. But it's unlikely given the level of political will,"
said Salemeel Huq at the International Institute for Environment and
Development in London.

And David Karoly, of the University of Melbourne, said the world was "very unlikely" to reach the goal.

Latest Climate Science Underscores Urgent Need to Reduce Heat-trapping Emissions

From Union of Concerned Scientists

There's a downloadable pdf version on the site.

Major developments in climate change science have been reported since the

publication of the comprehensive 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[1]
Recent publications indicate that the consequences of climate change
are already occurring at a faster pace and are of greater magnitude
than the climate models used by the IPCC projected. A few of the most
compelling findings are summarized below.

Stern attacks politicians over climate 'devastation'

By David Adam for the Guardian

Politicians have failed to take on board the severe consequences of failing to cut world carbon emissions, according to Nicholas Stern, the economist commissioned by Gordon Brown to analyse the impact of climate change.

His stark warning about the potentially "devastating" consequences of
global warming came as scientists issued a desperate plea last night
for world leaders to curb greenhouse gas emissions or face an
ecological and social disaster.

More than 2,500 climate experts from 80 countries at an emergency summit in Copenhagen said there is now "no excuse" for failing to act on global warming. A failure to
agree strong carbon reduction targets at political negotiations this
year could bring "abrupt or irreversible" shifts in climate that "will
be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with".

Carbon Emissions Creating Acidic Oceans Not Seen Since Dinosaurs

By David Abram for The Guardian/UK

Chemical change placing 'unprecedented' pressure on marine life and could cause widespread extinctions, warn scientists

Human pollution is turning the seas into acid so quickly that the
coming decades will recreate conditions not seen on Earth since the
time of the dinosaurs, scientists will warn today.

A gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) at the Ojo de Liebre in the Baja California peninsula (Photograph: ALEJANDRO ZEPEDA/EPA)

The rapid acidification is caused by the massive amounts of carbon dioxide
belched from chimneys and exhausts that dissolve in the ocean. The chemical change is placing "unprecedented" pressure on marine life such as shellfish and lobsters and could cause widespread extinctions, the experts say.

Scientists Find Bigger than Expected Polar Ice Melt

From Agence France Presse

GENEVA - Icecaps around the North and South Poles are melting faster and in a more widespread manner than expected, raising sea levels and fuelling climate change, a major scientific survey showed Wednesday.

The International Polar Year survey found that warming in the Antarctic is "much more widespread than was thought," while Arctic sea ice is diminishing and the melting of Greenland's ice cover is accelerating.

Mass Migrations and War: Dire Climate Scenario

by Charles J. Hanley for AP

CAPE TOWN, South Africa - If we don't deal with climate changedecisively, "what we're talking about then is extended world war," theeminent economist said.

His audience Saturday, small and elite,had been stranded here by bad weather and were talking climate. Theycouldn't do much about the one, but the other was squarely in their hands. And so, Lord Nicholas Stern was telling them, was the potential for mass migrations setting off mass conflict.

Global warming seen worse than predicted

By Julie Steenhuysen for Reuters

(CHICAGO (Reuters) - The climate is heating up far faster than scientists had predicted, spurred by sharp increases in greenhouse gas emissions from developing countries like China and India, a top climate scientist said on Saturday.

"The consequence of that is we are basically looking now at a future climate that is beyond anything that we've considered seriously," Chris Field, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Chicago.

Field said "the actual trajectory of climate change is more serious" than any of the climate predictions in the IPCC's fourth assessment report called "Climate Change 2007."

Parched: Australia Faces Collapse as Climate Change Kicks In

by Geoffrey Lean and Kathy Marks for The Independent/UK

Leaves are falling off trees in the height of summer, railway tracks are buckling, and people are retiring to their beds with deep-frozen hot-water bottles, as much of Australia swelters in its worst-ever heatwave.

On Friday, Melbourne thermometers topped 43C (109.4F) on a third successive day for the first time on record, while even normally mild Tasmania suffered its second-hottest day in a row, as temperatures reached 42.2C. Two days before, Adelaide hit a staggering 45.6C. After a weekend respite, more records are expected to be broken this week.

Ministers are blaming the heat - which follows a record drought - on global warming. Experts worry that Australia, which emits more carbon dioxide per head than any nation on earth, may also be the first to implode under the impact of climate change.

At times last week it seemed as if that was happening already. Chaos ruled in Melbourne on Friday after an electricity substation exploded, shutting down the city's entire train service, trapping people in lifts, and blocking roads as traffic lights failed. Half a million homes and businesses were blacked out, and patients were turned away from hospitals.

Climate Change Killing America's Trees at Ever Faster Rates

By Michael Wald for Wired

Trees in western North America are dying at faster and faster rates, and climate change is likely to blame.

The mounting deaths could fundamentally transform Western forests because tree reproduction hasn’t increased to offset losses, according to a new study published Thursday in Science. And new seedlings aren’t rising quickly enough to fill the gaps.

“If current trends continue, forests will become sparser over time,” co-author Philip van Mantgem, an ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, said in a press conference call. This would be a setback in the fight against global warming because thinner forests with small, young trees store less carbon, so more heat-trapping carbon dioxide would cycle into the atmosphere.

International Energy Agency 'Blocking Global Switch to Renewables'

By David Adam for the Guardian/UK

The international body that advises most major governments across the world on energy policy is obstructing a global switch to renewable power because of its ties to the oil, gas and nuclear sectors, a group of politicians and scientists claims today.

The experts, from the Energy Watch group, say the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes misleading data on renewables, and that it has consistently underestimated the amount of electricity generated by wind power in its advice to governments. They say the IEA shows "ignorance and contempt" towards wind energy, while promoting oil, coal and nuclear as "irreplaceable" technologies.

In a report to be published today, the Energy Watch experts say wind-power capacity has rocketed since the early 90s and that if current trends continue, wind and solar power-generation combined are on track to match conventional generation by 2025.

Rudolf Rechsteiner, a member of the Swiss parliament who sits on its energy and environment committee, and wrote today's report, said the IEA suffered from "institutional blindness" on renewable energy. He said: "They are delaying the change to a renewable world. They continue touting nuclear and carbon-capture-and-storage, classical central solutions, instead of a more neutral approach, which would favour new solutions."

Climate Change Policies Failing, NASA Scientist Warns Obama

by James Randerson
Published on Thursday, January 1, 2009 by the Guardian/UK

Current approaches to deal with climate change are ineffectual, one of the world's top climate scientists said today in a personal new year appeal to Barack Obama and his wife Michelle on the urgent need to tackle global warming.

With less than three weeks to go until Obama's inauguration, Prof James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, asked the recently appointed White House science adviser Prof John Holdren to pass the missive directly to the president-elect.

James Hansen sent an open letter to Barack Obama's science adviser.
Obama spoke repeatedly during his campaign about the need to tackle climate change, and environmentalists fervently hope he will live up to his promises to pursue green policies.

Obama Left With Little Time to Curb Global Warming

by Seth Borenstein for AP

WASHINGTON - When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore. Now it is a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid.

Since Clinton's inauguration, summer Arctic sea ice has lost the equivalent of Alaska, California and Texas. The 10 hottest years on record have occurred since Clinton's second inauguration. Global warming is accelerating. Time is close to running out, and Obama knows it.

"The time for delay is over; the time for denial is over," he said on Tuesday after meeting with former Vice President Al Gore, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming. "We all believe what the scientists have been telling us for years now that this is a matter of urgency and national security and it has to be dealt with in a serious way."

Climate change experts lose faithin renewable technology

Specialists less optimistic that wind, solar and hydro power have 'high potential' to solve climate crisis, survey shows

* David Adam in Poznan
* guardian.co.uk, Tuesday December 9 2008 15.00 GMT

Support for renewable energy technology to fight global warming is weakening in the face of worldwide economic problems and the true scale of the carbon reductions required, a survey published today has suggested.

Figures presented at the UN climate talks in Poznan, Poland, show that climate experts have less faith in alternative energy than they did 12 months ago.

The survey shows less support for wind energy, solar power, biofuels, biomass and hydrogen energy as technologies with "high potential" to reduce carbon levels in the atmosphere over the next 25 years.

There was also less support for carbon capture and storage, new nuclear build, small-scale hydropower and natural gas stations as viable ways to hit targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

FAQ on climate models

Here's a good summary from Real Climate

We discuss climate models a lot, and from the comments here and in other forums it's clear that there remains a great deal of confusion about what climate models do and how their results should be interpreted. This post is designed to be a FAQ for climate model questions - of which a few are already given. If you have comments or other questions, ask them as concisely as possible in the comment section and if they are of enough interest, we'll add them to the post so that we can have a resource for future discussions. (We would ask that you please focus on real questions that have real answers and, as always, avoid rhetorical excesses).

Climate change accelerating far beyond the IPCC forecast, WWF says

Climate change accelerating far beyond the IPCC forecast, WWF says

By Paul Eccleston
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 20/10/2008

Climate change is happening much faster than the world's best scientists predicted and will wreak havoc unless action is taken on a global scale, a new report warns.

# Deforestation: Paying nations not to cut down forests 'will fuel corruption'
# 'IPCC seriously underplays climate change'
# IPCC: Lawson wrong about climate change

Extreme weather events such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from heat stress and poor air quality, will happen more frequently.

Britain and the North Sea area will be hit more often by violent cyclones and sea level rise predictions will double to more than a metre putting vast coastal areas at risk from flooding.

The bleak report from WWF - formerly the World Wildlife Fund - also predicts crops failures and the collapse of eco systems on both land and sea.

Climate Change Is Faster and More Extreme' Than Feared

Climate change is happening much faster than the world's best scientists predicted and will wreak havoc unless action is taken on a global scale, a new report warns.

by Paul Eccleston for The Telegraph/UK

Extreme weather events' such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from heat stress and poor air quality, will happen more frequently.

Britain and the North Sea area will be hit more often by violent cyclones and the predicted rise in sea level will double to more than a metre, putting vast coastal areas at risk from flooding.

The bleak report from WWF - formerly the World Wildlife Fund - also predicts crops failures and the collapse of eco systems on both land and sea.

Britain could have first 'green Christmas'

Britain could soon be having a 'green Christmas' because of the dramatic effects of climate change.

Trees that used to shed their leaves in autumn are now often still in leaf in mid-December.

Environmental experts say it is only a matter of time before foliage remains until the end of the month.