Friday, December 22, 2006

New ocean rising prediction

A leading German researcher has upped the ante on sea-level rise.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Carbon emissions show sharp rise

The part about no energy efficiency gains is bothersome, since they are usually one of the fastest and cheapest ways of "producing" clean energy.

BBC NEWS : Carbon emissions show sharp rise

Monday, November 20, 2006

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Climate Change Is as Serious as WMD: Annan

And climate change increses the risk of more other top notch political action targets, like poverty, disease, and the use of WMDs.

Climate Change Is as Serious as WMD: Annan

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

WWF - Climate change has birds out on a limb

Some detailed regional forecasts included, and a link to both summary and full report pdfs.

WWF - Climate change has birds out on a limb

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Malaria surge in Kenyan highlands may be tied to global warming - Yahoo! News

One of the predictions early on regarding Global Warming was the spread of cold limited diseases northward. These results from Kenya are some of the first empirical data that indicates the predictions coming to pass.

Malaria surge in Kenyan highlands may be tied to global warming - Yahoo! News

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Scientists Say White House Muzzled Climate Research

This is actually old news, but the higher levels of investigation by the Commerce Department and NASA are something new.

"These investigations are critical because the Republicans in Congress have ignored this serious problem," Lautenberg said.

Scientists Say White House Muzzled Climate Research

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

White House shrugs off the Stern report

Get this: "The president has long recognised that climate change is a serious issue. He has committed the nation to investing in new technologies."

There's also doubt that using Al Gore as the point man will have much effect in DC.

Analysts Sceptical about Report's Impact in US - and Benefits of Using Al Gore

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Comments on the Stern report

Prometheus, the Science policy weblog from The University of Colorado, has some commentary on the Stern report, some of which question the editorial filters used in choosing excerpts from its sources. They find it alarmist, which doesn't mean there's no cause for alarm. Check out the previous post on this blog today.

A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making

Here's a detailed summary of the Stern report, which is the impetus for the highest level yet of British resolution to deal with Global Warming.

A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making

Monday, October 30, 2006

Gore to advise British on global warming

LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice PresidentAl Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.

Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News

Gore to advise British on global warming

LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice President
Al Gore

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Al Gore
, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.

Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Climate Change Economic Warning

Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist with the World Bank, will warn that governments need to tackle the problem head-on by cutting emissions or face economic ruin.

Tackle Climate Change or Face Deep Recession, World's Leaders Warned

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Warming link to amphibian disease

The culprit in the case of declining amphibian populations may be warming as much as pesticides, mediated by a fungal infection.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Warming link to amphibian disease

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Bill Mc Kibben - Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort

This is the guy who wrote "The End of Nature", prescient for noting that with climate change becoming global, there really wasn't anywhre left that was "natural", that all environments were under human impact.

How Close to Catastrophe? Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort

Global ecosystems 'face collapse'

This is from the stress of consumption of resources, setting aside the stresses of climate change with all its wildcards.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Global ecosystems 'face collapse'

U.S., EU hold climate talks despite Kyoto rift - Yahoo! News

U.S., EU hold climate talks despite Kyoto rift - Yahoo! News

Friday, October 20, 2006

Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'

As drought causes crop failures, people will move rather than starve.

Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'

Update on Greenland ice sheet

It's not melting as fast as some previous estimates, but still significant ice losses are occurring and more are expected.

Greenland ice sheet shrinking fast: NASA - Yahoo! News

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

UN to talk on climate adaptation

The focus is on helping developing countries cope with Climate Change. There's a big meeting in Africa next month.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UN to talk on climate adaptation

Monday, October 16, 2006

Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News

British and Belgian scientists have tracked down the intermediate steps from global warming to the specific effect that broke up the Larsen B ice shelf.

Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity

Apparently the Brits have figured out that getting ahead of the curve can be very good business, leaving the US, as with hybrid car technology, to play catch-up.

Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity

Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News

Finally some action inside the Republican party, but whether it will move it's energy company owners is unlikely.

Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News

U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News

It seems the western US is gaining temperature faster than the worldwide averages, by a factor of three. More drought and heat waves, deeper deserts.

Expert: U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News

It's like a slowly developing picture emerging in a sish in a darkroom. The details start to be visible.

Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News

Monday, October 09, 2006

Impact from the Deep - Scientific American

This is a featured article, positing that most of the major extinction events discovered by paleo-biology were not asteroid impacts but rather greenhouse type events engendered by oceanic gas releases. That a similar event might recur is a possibility, and another is that human gas releases put us on a similar trajectory.

Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Impact from the Deep -- [ EARTH SCIENCE ] -- Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast

A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists focusing on the Northeast US, seventh largest CO2 emitting area of the world.

Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast

The Century of Drought

This is a more detailed run-up to the Lovelock disaster. One third of the world in drought severe enough to stop agriculture, mostly affecting areas already drought prone, such as the US heartland, thought they seem more focused on the third world. I still haven't found the original publication, but this seems to be a very newly released result. Further, note that the areas affected are the ones where the "bio-fuel revolution" hopes to grow its crops.

The Century of Drought

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

WorldChanging: Tools, Models and Ideas for Building a Bright Green Future

An interesting book review of "HEAT: how to stop the planet burning" by George Monbiot.


WorldChanging: Tools, Models and Ideas for Building a Bright Green Future

Suppressed NOAA hurricane consensus statement

I copiied this from another blog. They did more research, and you might want to read their whole introduction, which also has some history of the supression effort. Follow the link below the title.


NOAA Fact Sheet: Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate

What has been Atlantic hurricane activity during the 20th Century?

-- Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 have been significantly more active, e.g. more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, that the previous two decades (figure 1)
-- Earlier periods, such as from 1945 to 1970 (and perhaps earlier), were apparently as active as the most recent decade.
-- The past decade has seen increased U.S. landfalls, however periods of even higher landfalls occurred early in the century (figure 2)
-- Strong natural decadal variations, as well as changes in data quality, density, sources, and methodologies for estimating hurricane strengths, lie at the heart of arguments whether or not a global warming contribution to a trend in tropical cyclone intensities can be detected.

How have ocean temperatures varied?

-- Over the 20th Century, global ocean temperatures and sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, (and Gulf of Mexico) have warmed at similar rates, indicating a role for global warming in these regions. (Figure 3)
-- Anomalous MDR, tropical Atlantic temperatures were significantly warmer than the global average from about 1930 to 1970 and after 2000. This warming is attributed to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)

What factors influence seasonal to multi-decadal hurricane activity

-- Hurricanes respond to a variety of environmental factors besides local ocean temperatures.
-- The tropical multi-decadal phenomenon and the El Nino/La Nina cycle are important factors in determining the conditions for seasonal to multi-decadal extremes in hurricane activity.
-- Research indicates that global warming can also increase hurricane intensities; there is less evidence for impacts on frequency.

How long will the current active period last?

-- Scientists disagree as to whether currently a sound basis exists for making projections on how long the current active period will last. The viewpoints are:

o Limited understanding of natural decadal variability, combined with its irregular temporal behavior, preclude definitive statements about how long the active period will last. (NOAA)
o One might expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity and U.S. landfalls for the next decade and beyond since the previous active period (1945-1970) lasted at least 25 years. (NOAA)
o Because of global warming the active period could persist

Programs of improvements to data sets, diagnostic studies for improved understanding, and systematic numerical experimentation studies will help to reveal the underlying causes for the recent active period and to predict how long the period of increased activity will last. NOAA is actively engaged in each of these activities.

Key Problems NOAA is working on

-- Understanding the dynamics of the AMO, its links to the larger-scale tropical climate variability, and developing an ocean monitoring and decadal prediction capability
-- Improving the quality and scope of hurricane relevant data sets
-- Numerically simulating and ultimately understanding seasonal to decadal hurricane variability
-- Understanding whether or not and to what degree anthropogenic forcing is having an influence on hurricanes
-- Developing a predictive understanding of global climate variability and trends and the impacts of these on extreme events
-- Making improvements to short range hurricane track and intensity forecasts through improved models and development of additional capabilities for hurricanes.

NOAA Resources for Additional Information

-- NWS/NCEP/CPC intraseasonal to multi-season climate forecasts; seasonal hurricane forecasts; diagnostic studies of major climate anomalies; real time monitoring of climate.
-- NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC issue daily and seasonal (in conjunction with CPC and HRD) operational hurricane forecasts; maintain and update the official Atlantic and Northeast Pacific hurricane databases from which observational climate studies are conducted
-- NESDIS/NCDC official archive for climate data sets; development of global tropical cyclone databases, analysis of historical frequency and strength of Atlantic Basin hurricanes to support engineering design and levee rebuilding in New Orleans, analyses of climate trends, monitoring and historical perspective on current seasons.
-- OAR/AOML/HRD & PHoD physical understanding of hurricane dynamics through use of research aircraft and field studies; improvements to hurricane track and intensity forecasts; monitoring of Atlantic ocean circulations; studies of Atlantic climate
-- OAR/GFDL studies of climate variability and change; development and use of the required climate models; development of models used for operational hurricane forecasts by NOAA and the NAVY; numerical studies of climate impacts on hurricanes and their decadal variability
-- OAR/ESRL diagnostic studies of climate variability and changes; impacts of climate on extreme events.
-- NOAA Climate Office intramural and extramural support for development of a predictive understanding of the climate system, the required observational capabilities, delivery of climate services.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Monday, September 25, 2006

Global Warming Takes a Break - Yahoo! News

The pace isn't relentless, and it seems that aerosols may be mitigating factors. Maybe we should be happy about dirty coal burning plants and untunes engines, and a big cheer for the occasional volcano.

Global Warming Takes a Break - Yahoo! News

60 Years to Restore the Ozone Layer Over Antarctica

What I find interesting is that this is a problem that has received strong and definitive world wide action, that's effective, and still the momentum of the global processes is such that I won't see the solution in my lifetime. The perspective that throws on the response to global warming is depressing, more so than the already dismal outlook that I can't avoid.

60 Years to Restore the Ozone Layer Over Antarctica

Mass Tourism and Climate Change

Another of the interactions of warming and business as usual, ie, expanding.

Mass Tourism and Climate Change Could Lead to Destruction of World's Wonders

Friday, September 22, 2006

Sorry about the gap

I've been away from my normal internet resources, and haven't been posting, but will get some catch-up done in the next couple of days. Thanks for your patience.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Study acquits sun of climate change, blames humans - Yahoo! News

One of the lingering alternative explanations for warming has been changes in solar output. This study has exonerated the Sun from a being a major contributor.

Study acquits sun of climate change, blames humans - Yahoo! News

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Permafrost Methane release accelerating

This story emerged about a year ago when large areas of Siberian permafrost were detected to be outgassing methane. It appears that folks have made more careful measurements since then, and releases may be greater than current models are using.

Scientists see new global warming threat - Yahoo! News

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Deep ice tells long climate story

Nothing in the 800,00 year data column matches the current levels of CO2.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Deep ice tells long climate story

RealClimate The beginning of an IPCC response

They immediately point out errors of interpretation in the early news releases, and the more important ebsnce from the models of new methane and other feedbacks.

RealClimate » Chinese whispers in Australia

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Climate panel lowers global warming forecast: report - Yahoo! News

IPCC draft is less pessimistic, but I'm waiting to see the commenatry on Real Climate.

Climate panel lowers global warming forecast: report - Yahoo! News

Global Warming Increases Gene Crossovers in Fruit Flies

The base lines were widespread latitude correlations over the last 25 years. More dynamic invert evolution? Maybe microbes too (no data yet)

Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Global Warming Shows Up in Fly Genes

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release

Here's another one of those positive feedback situations. Global warming increases oceanic oil seeps, which release more methane, which is a strong greenhouse gas.

Scientific American.com: Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release

Ocean plankton absorb less CO2

Less of a carbon sink than the models had calculated, due to lowered iron cocentrations. What's causing that isn't clear.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Ocean plankton absorb less CO2

Study: Summer is Getting Longer - Yahoo! News

Thought it was just your imagination? well, no, not really.

Study: Summer is Getting Longer - Yahoo! News

California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight - Yahoo! News

Once more California seems to be a different nation than the one centered in Washington DC. Fortunately, it's such a large market that its regulations and requirements affect products all through the country, both directly and as a pace-setter.

California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight - Yahoo! News

Monday, August 28, 2006

Thursday, August 24, 2006

McKibben on Global Warming

Bill McKibben, who had a book about twenty years ago called "The End of Nature", which presciently pointed out that given human effects on the entire body of the atmosphere, there were no truly natural, that is, untouched, places on the planet. This is another call for action.

Finally, Fired up over Global Warming

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Insurance Industry faces climate change

I ran into this on a another climate blog. It's interesting that they are facing the risks as a category, rather than trying to factor the climate change effects into the other categories of risk where a lot of the trouble is expressed. Parsing the damages by category is always a crap shoot with insurance coverage. On the gulf coast a policy would cover the wind taking a roof off, but not the wind driving a storm surge flood.

Plugged in: Insurance companies grapple with global warming - Aug. 23, 2006

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Simple arguments for why climate can be predicted

Some folks are puzzled by the apparent contradiction between the inability to predict short term weather (beyond a few days), and the modeling of longer term climate change, which grows more accurate as the models are fine tuned. This post on Real Cimate addresses some of the reasons that this contradiction is only apparent, and why the two projects are critters of different kinds.

RealClimate » Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Three degree warming prediction

The consequences of this amount of warming are spelled out

The Heat Is Online

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Triple dose of morbidity

I found it strange that these three stories came up on AP science at the same time.

First, dying Aspens

Then the Pacific dead zone growing

And then mysterious die-offs of Salt Marsh vegetation

I'm not sure that they are all caused by globalwarming, though I suspect that it is at last a stressor on most systems.

Greenland's Ice Melting is a Fright

This is getting published in Science today, and seems to be new and more alarming result.

Greenland's Ice Cap is Melting at a Frighteningly Fast Rate

Saturday, August 05, 2006

The Canary Project

Here is a site with before and after photos of areas being affected by Global Warming

The Canary Project

The Climate Group

Link

Website for this "independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing business and government leadership on climate change. ... based in the UK, the USA and Australia." Features interviews with international business and government leaders, case studies about actions being taken by governmental and corporate actors "to minimize their carbon footprints," and suggestions for individuals for reducing emissions (with links to related sites). Also includes links to news stories, online publications, and more.

RealClimate » Amazonian drought

Since I posted an alarming article on this drought, it's probably good that a more complete and scientifically level-headed evaluation follow. Please check this out. I still have visions of more forest fires as the heat continues to build, and the tropics aren't as adapted to occasional catastrophic fire as the more northern fire regimes. More info can be chased down by Googling Stephen J Pyne

RealClimate » Amazonian drought

Friday, August 04, 2006

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Limits of Nuclear Energy in warmer world

There are several ironic twists in this story. Hotter weather means hotter reactors to cover cooling energy demands, but the reactrs have to shed their heat to the environment, usually to rivers or cooling lakes, and those may be damaged when the design criteria are over-ridden in a heat wave emergency.

European Heat Wave Shows Limits of Nuclear Energy - Yahoo! News

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Soya Crops Expansion halts for a while

One of the contributors to the rainforest problems in the Amazon ha ben a rapid expansion on soya farming, causing more deforestation than logging and grazing. This is some kind of reprieve, but may be partially a reaction to the drought already in progress, caused most likely partially by soya expansion. Loss of forest is interrupting the Amazon's ability to water itself by its own transpiration and subsequent cloud formation.

Moratorium on New Soya Crops Wins Reprieve For Rainforest

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

FOXNews.com - Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change - Science News | Current Articles

I picked this up off another blog. Pretty amazing that the hired guns of the oil companies (and maybe their subsidiaries in congress) are getting the message.

FOXNews.com - Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change - Science News | Current Articles

Lovelock's book - The Revenge of Gaia

It was reading the reviews and some qotes from this book, now available in the US, (and even at my local library after I asked them to get a copy), that got me started on this blog. I felt dismal and hopeless, obvious if you read the first posts. Then I got lost in details, and read another book in the Meantime, "the Weather Makers", by Flannery, which didn't have so dismala take on the situation. Hope crept back. The alarm was more gradualist, time wasn't so critical, final scenarios from political incompetence weren't so drastic. Almost soothing.

I'm back to hopeless. Lovelock's book is devastating, and his science is as solid as the less alarming, but less prone to overstatemant academic variety. The endless stream of bad news as told in this blog and elsewhere is daunting and depressing. I'm back to figuring how to get to Alaska and how to stay there. Get a job in the oil industry? Good birding for awhile, and severe seasonal bipolar roller-coaster. And wondering if it's even worth it.

An interesting aspect of the book is Lovelock's insistence that the only currently available time-buying technology is nuclear power generation. That doesn't sit well with an old activist, but his logic is simple: the disaster of rampant global warming is far worse than all the problems associated with nukes. I can see his point, but it's hard to swallow. And even that is a no guarantee solution. I'm uneasy about the proliferation of nuclear materials in an increasingly unstable and desperate world, witness the current eruption in the middle east, and the US encouragement and support of (nuclear armed) Israel.

Another strange glitch in the book is his opposition to wind power. He seems to believe that it's beside the point, though it is proving its effectiveness by leaps and bounds. Still, one gets the impression that his real objection is aesthetic, that he sees it ruining the countryside which he treasures, especially parts that haven't been taken over by industrial agriculture. In light of his perspective on nukes, the clear lesser-of-two-evils thinking there, it's a glaring inconsistency. I wonder how much Tony Blair's advocacy of a nuclear ramping up to combat carbon emissions stems from Lovelock's stance? I don't know how well they're acquainted, but Lovelock is one of the world's prominant public scientists.

I still haven't seen the Al Gore movie. Guess I'll have to cobble up a review of that too.

More detail on melting Greenland glaciers

From Real Climate (I didn't note the date)

In a recent paper in Science, Eric Rignot and Pannir Kanagaratnam present new satellite observations of the speed of glaciers of Greenland, and find that they are sliding towards the sea almost twice as fast as previously thought. Additionally, between 1996 and 2005, they detected a widespread glacier acceleration and consequently an increased rate of ice discharge from the Greenland ice sheet. However, previous papers have recently noted an increase in snow accumulation in the interior (i.e. Johanessen et al., 2005), so how do these different measurements fit into the larger picture of Greenland's net mass balance?

The measurements by Rignot & Kanagartnam were made with interferometers which measure the movement of the surface horizontally, and so is complimentary to the altimeter data published previously (which measures the absolute height of the ice). Overall, they found widespread increases in glacier speeds, and increases of about 30% in ice discharge rates. (Note that the satellite image shows that the glaciers in the east tend to slide far into the sea whereas on the western coast that happens less).

The higher velocity of the ice is thought to be related to higher temperatures causing increased melt-water which can penetrate to the base of the glacier and hence reduce the ground friction. However, this accelerated movement is not necessarily tied to an increased rate of melting of the Greenland ice, although it can be related. Surges of ice streams from the ice sheet can also occur due to increased accumulation at the head of the glacier. However, when the increased ice velocity is matched to a decreasing thickness that can be sign of net mass loss. These ideas are consistent with observations of surface melting which had a record extent in 2005, and has been increasing steadily (though with significant interannual variability) since 1993. Using the analysis of Hanna et al (2005) (based on the reanalysis datasets) for the surface mass balance, Rignot & Kanagartnam estimate that Greenland is on balance losing mass, and over the period of their study the ice sheet mass deficit (the amount of ice lost to the sea) has doubled increasing from 90 to 220 km3/year (an increase of 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr sea level equivalent - SLE).

In the earlier Science paper, Johanessen et al. found increased snow accumulation on the top of the interior Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2003. Above 1500m a.s.l in much of the interior Greenland they estimated an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year and below 1500m they observed a decreasing trend of -2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year. Hence, growth in the interior parts and a thinning of the ice nearer the edges. However, Johanessen et al. were not able to measure all of the coastal ranges. Indeed, the thinning of the margins and growth in the interior Greenland is an expected response to increased temperatures and more precipitation in a warmer climate. These results present no contradiction to the accelerated sliding near the coasts, but both will affect the ice/snow (fresh water) mass estimate. Whereas the finding of Rignot & Kanagaratnam suggests a larger sink of the frozen Greenland fresh water budget (the ice is dumped into the sea), the snow deposition in Greenland interiors is a source term (increases the amount of frozen fresh water). It does not matter for the general sea level in which form the water exists (liguid or solid/frozen) when it is discharged into the sea: The same mass of liquid water and immersed ice affect the water level equally (Archimede's principle).

A third relevant study is a recent paper in the Journal of Glaciology by Zwally et al. (2005) on the ice mass changes on Greenland and Antarctica. They use the same satellite obsevations (ERS 1 & 2) as Johanessen et al. and again find that the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 ± 2 Gt/year = -46 ± 2 km3/year below the equilibrium-line altitude - ELA), but growing in the inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/year = 58 ± 2 km3/year). The mass estimates have been converted to volume estimates here, assuming the density of ice is 0.917 g/cm3 at 0°C, so that the mass of one Gt of ice is roughly equivalent to 1.1km3 ice*. This means that the Greenland ice has an overall mass gain by +11 ± 3 Gt/year (=10 ± 2.7 km3/year) which they estimated implied a -0.03 mm/year SLE over the period 1992-2002.

The critical point for Greenland is whether the increased rate of glacier motion more than compensates for the greater accumulation on the surface. While the broad picture of what is happening is consistent between these papers, the bottom-line value for Greenland's mass balance is different in all three cases. Looking just at the dynamical changes observed by Rignot & Kanagaratnam, there is an increased discharge of about 0.28 mm/year SLE from 1996 to 2005, well outside the range of error bars. This is substantially more than the opposing changes in accumulation estimated by Johannessen et al and Zwally et al, and is unlikely to have been included in their assessments. Thus, the probability is that Greenland has been losing ice in the last decade. We should be careful to point out though that this is only for one decade, and doesn't prove anything about the longer term. As many of the studies make clear, there is a significant degree of interannual variability (related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the response to the cooling associated with Mt. Pinatubo) such that discerning longer term trends is hard.

The largest contributions to sea level rise so far are estimated to have come from thermal expansion, with the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps being of second order. Looking forward, the current (small) imbalance (whether positive or negative) of the Greenland ice sheet is not terribly important. What matters is if the melting were to increase significantly. Ongoing observations (most promisingly from the GRACE gravity measurements, Velicogna et al, 2005) will be useful in monitoring trends, but in order to have reasonable projections into the future, we would like to be able to rely on ice sheet models. Unfortunately, the physics of basal lubrication and the importance of ice dynamics highlighted in the Rignot & Kanagaratnam results are very poorly understood and not fully accounted for in current ice sheet models. Until those models include these effects, there is a danger that we may be under-appreciating the dynamic nature of the ice sheets.

References:

Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P; Janssens, I; Cappelen, J; Steffen, K; Stephens, A (2005) J. Geophys. Res.Vo. 110, D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641

Johanessen, O.M; Khvorostovsky, K; Miles, M.W; Bobylev, L.P. (2005) ScienceVo. 310 no. 5750, pp 1013-1016

Ringnot, E; Kanagaratnam, P (2006) ScienceVo. 311 no. 5763, pp 986-990

Velicogna, I; Wahr, J; Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P. (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett.Vo. 32, L05501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021948

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)

Monday, July 24, 2006

Western Wildfires Correlated to Global Warming

Study ties warming to more fires in West - Environment - MSNBC.com

More on the Biodiversity Crisis

Earth 'on Verge of Major Biodiversity Crisis'

Ocean warming impacts on seabirds

This came in on one of my birding Listservs


Warmer Waters Disrupt Pacific Food Chain
Steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has rekindled
scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the coastal food
supply.

July 24, 2006 — By Marcus Wohlsen, Associated Press

FARALLON NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Calif. — On these craggy, remote islands
west of San Francisco, the largest seabird colony in the contiguous United
States throbs with life. Seagulls swarm so thick that visitors must yell to be
heard above their cries. Pelicans glide.

But the steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has
rekindled scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the
coastal food supply, threatening not just the Farallones but entire marine
ecosystems.

Tiny Cassin's auklets live much of their lives on the open ocean. But in
spring, these gray-and-white relatives of the puffin venture to isolated Pacific
outposts like the Farallones to dig deep burrows and lay their eggs.

Adult auklets usually feed their chicks with krill, the minuscule
shrimp-like crustaceans that anchor the ocean's complex food web.

But not this year. Almost none of the 20,000 pairs of Cassin's auklets
nesting in the Farallones will raise a chick that lives more than a few days, a
repeat of last year's "unprecedented" breeding failure, according to Russ
Bradley, a seabird biologist with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory who monitors
the birds on the islands.

Scientists blame changes in West Coast climate patterns for a delay in the
seasonal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from the ocean's depths for
the second year in a row. Weak winds and faltering currents have left the Gulf
of the Farallones without krill, on which Cassin's auklets and a variety of
other seabirds, fish and mammals depend for food.

"The seas are warmer. And the number of krill being produced is lower," said
Bradley as he held a Cassin's auklet chick, the only one from a study of 400
nests he expected to survive.

"Normally we would have hundreds," he said.

The failure of last year's Pacific upwelling killed seabirds from California
to British Columbia. Scientists had hoped the change was just a natural
temperature fluctuation in what is known as the California Current.

But the return of higher ocean temperatures and scarce food resources this
year has scientists wondering whether last year's erratic weather was not a
fluke but the emergence of a troubling trend.

"How many years in a row do you see this before you start raising your
eyebrows?" said Frank Schwing, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration in Pacific Grove.

Climatologists describe global warming as a worldwide rise in temperatures
caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses thought to
trap heat in the atmosphere. Predictions of global warming's effects include
rising sea levels, fiercer storms, more wildfires and warmer oceans.

Without long-term data, scientists have so far found it difficult to make
direct links between specific natural events and global warming.

But the Farallones present a special case. Researchers have kept Cassin's
auklet counts there every day since 1967. Never before have they seen such a
drop-off in numbers. That decline comes as California ocean temperatures hover
three to five degrees above average.

"One of the things that the climate models predict is that we're going to
have unpredictable weather, extreme weather, that the whole seasonal cycle of
events will not be what we expect," said Bill Peterson, a NOAA oceanographer
in Newport, Ore. "We aren't seeing normal patterns."

Perhaps nowhere is this ecological disruption felt more than here on the
Farallones, a 200-acre island chain often described as California's Galapagos.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service keeps the national wildlife refuge closed
to visitors except for a small group of scientists and volunteers who live
there year-round.

The krill-dependent whales and salmon that inhabit the surrounding waters
have not appeared to suffer from the changes in food supply. But during a visit
to the islands this summer, scientists pointed to other species feeling the
consequences.

The absence of krill has led to a collapse of the juvenile rockfish
population. This is the main food source for young of the common murre, a bird that
resembles a flying penguin. Though the murre has made a dramatic comeback
recently, with about 200,000 adults nesting on the islands this year, nearly
three-quarters of murres breeding this year are not expected to raise chicks that
survive.

"At this point it's way too late in the season for the birds to initiate
another attempt at breeding," said Peter Warzybok, a Farallones-based biologist
with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory. "They'll just have to wait around for
next year and hope that it's better."

Significant drops in murre and Cassin's auklet numbers occurred during the
El Nino years of 1983 and 1992, when warmer Pacific waters near the equator
upset weather patterns worldwide.

A January conference of more than 40 climatologists, oceanographers, and
wildlife biologists issued a report describing last year's altered coastal
climate as El Nino-like conditions in a non-El Nino year. Some researchers have
given the new climate shift its own name: "El Coyote."

The report said a "ridge" of winter air blocking winds from the Gulf of
Alaska lingered more than two months longer than normal in 2005, which delayed
the upwelling until well past the birds' breeding seasons.

"It's not just a local effect," Schwing said. "It's related to global-scale
changes in atmospheric circulation."

But it could take researchers another decade to determine whether global
warming caused those changes. Some climatologists warn against drawing overly
broad conclusions from only two years of unusual weather.

Definitive results are "not around the corner," said Nick Bond, a research
meteorologist the University of Washington who has studied the upwelling's
failure.

"We just don't know how much the deck is stacked" by the effects of global
climate change, Bond said. "It's hard to tell from just a deal or two."

But whatever the cause, the ecological outcome if the trend continues is
already clear, according to scientists.

The Cassin's auklet is unlikely to adapt to the sudden loss of its main food
source. And other animals could follow, Schwing said.

In the worst case, he said, "we could see a great depression of the entire
ecosystem."

Source: Associated Press

Sunday, July 23, 2006

One Year to Save the Amazon

This is seriously bad news, a great carbon sink turns into a great carbon source.

Dying Forest: One Year to Save the Amazon

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Drought Threatens Amazon Basin

Truly alarming, a major dieback in the amazon is one of the tipping points for catastrophic global warming, since that forest is usually a carbon sink that removes CO2 from the atmosphere, but if the forest dies, it will release huge amonts instead.

Drought Threatens Amazon Basin

Climate Change: Discovery of Global Warming

Here's a site with lots of background info

Climate Change: Discovery of Global Warming

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

The New York Review of Books: The Threat to the Planet

Reviews of three books and a movie by the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies

The New York Review of Books: The Threat to the Planet

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Saturday, June 10, 2006

NASA Shelves Climate Satellites

Faced with the most important crisis in history, NASA chooses ignorance, most likely having it's arm and policy twisted by the "it's not happening" folks in DC

NASA Shelves Climate Satellites

Monday, June 05, 2006

Welcome to the Climate Crisis

By Bill McKibben, the guy who wrote "The End of Nature", where he pointed out that due to our changes to the atmosphere that there was now no place on earth untouched by man. Taht was at least fifteen yers ago.

Welcome to the Climate Crisis

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Friday, April 14, 2006

Stark warning over climate change from BBC

The really bizarre thing is that this is milder than some of the scenarios that are coming around. Check out some of the links, this is a pretty good site.

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Another ecosystem, very personal,under attack

Published on Thursday, February 9, 2006 by Reuters
Global Warming a Major Health Risk - Scientists

LONDON - Global warming is already causing death and disease across the world through flooding, environmental destruction, heatwaves and other extreme weather events, scientists said on Thursday.

And it is likely to get worse.

In a review published in The Lancet medical journal, the scientists said there was now a near-unanimous scientific consensus that rising levels of greenhouse gases would cause global warming and other climate changes.

"The advent of changes in global climate signals that we are now living beyond the Earth's capacity to absorb a major waste product," said Anthony McMichael of the Australian National University in Canberra and his colleagues, referring to greenhouse gases.

The scientists' review of dozens of scientific papers over the last five years said health risks were likely to get worse over time as climate change and other environmental and social changes deepened.

"The resultant risks to health ... are anticipated to compound over time as climate change along with other large scale environmental and social changes continues," they wrote.

The review said climate change would bring changes in temperature, sea levels, rainfall, humidity and winds.

This would lead to an increase in death rates from heatwaves, infectious diseases, allergies, cholera as well as starvation due to failing crops.

They said climate change may already have led to lower production of food in some regions due to changes in temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, pests and diseases.

"In food insecure populations this alteration may already be contributing to malnutrition," it said.

The scientists said sea levels had risen in recent decades, and people had already started moving from some low-lying Pacific islands. Such population movements often increased nutritional and physical problems and disease, they said.

"The number of people adversely affected by El Nino-related weather events over three decades, worldwide, appears to have increased greatly," it said, referring to the weather pattern caused by warming of the Pacific Ocean off South America.

The review called for research to identify groups vulnerable to climate change and said health concerns should be included in international policy debates about global warming.

"Recognition of widespread health risks should widen these debates beyond the already important considerations of economic disruption," they said.

Copyright © 2006 Reuters

Friday, April 07, 2006

The Millenium Assessment

A major presentation of info regarding the state of the world's ecosystems

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Millenium Assessment

Published on Friday, January 20, 2006 by Inter Press Service
Environment: World Stands at a Crossroads
by Stephen Leahy


BROOKLIN, Canada - With 60 percent of the Earth's ecosystems in trouble right now, according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, what will the future be like in 2050?

Demand for water will increase enormously between 30 and 85 percent, especially in Africa and Asia, while an increasing number of extreme events, such as hurricanes and famine, will affect many millions, warns a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) report that looks at future world development scenarios.

Humankind is pushing up against natural thresholds and increasing the likelihood of abrupt changes -- especially when there are three billion more people in 2050.

"Two billion people currently living in drylands, including the western U.S., are especially vulnerable to climate change, which could produce intense, long-term droughts," said Stephen Carpenter, a professor of zoology at the University of Wisconsin and one of the authors of the MA report.

Demand for food is expected to grow 70-85 percent by 2050, resulting in a 10 to 20 percent decline in forest and grasslands. Rising demand for fish will likely result in major and long-lasting collapse of regional marine fisheries. Hunger will remain a major problem, most widespread in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

South Asia could reach an "environmental breaking point as deforestation spreads, industrial agriculture grows, water use goes up and sewage discharge increases".

This future is not written in stone, Carpenter points out.

Conditions could get much worse or they might get better -- it all depends on the choices and the policies put into place now and the near future, the MA report concludes.

"We will have to make changes in policies for ecosystems to get better," he said at a press conference Thursday.

The MA is a 22-million-dollar, four-year global research initiative, commissioned by the United Nations, by 1,360 experts from 95 countries. The final four volumes published Thursday by Island Press reveal why and how to slow or reverse the degradation of the Earth's ecosystems, including a look at what the future may be like in 2050.

"This is a long overdue look at the state of Earth's ecosystems that sustain all life," said Thomas Lovejoy, president of the Heinz Centre, a U.S.-based NGO dedicated to improving the scientific and economic basis for environmental policy.

"The MA reports represent a roadmap for effective sustainable human development," said Lovejoy, a former ecologist with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

"It is highly relevant to U.S. policies in agriculture, trade and the environment," he added.

All societies, industries and businesses are dependent on the goods and services provided by nature. A natural landscape -- a wood lot or marsh, for example -- generates oxygen, cleans water, prevents erosion, builds soil, captures excess carbon dioxide, provides habitat for many other species and so on.

"There is an unbreakable link between human health and wellbeing and ecosystems," said Walter Reid, director of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a professor with the Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.

Ecosystem goods and services freely available today will cease to exist or become more costly if the current decline continues. And in all future scenarios, ecosystems will be under tremendous pressure to provide significant increases in food, fibre and water, according the MA report.

Under perhaps the most optimistic scenario, where a global society takes strong steps to reduce poverty, invests in public goods such as infrastructure and education, and economic growth booms, some 4.9 billion people will still have difficulties getting water.

Much of this dark future can be avoided through policies and practices that value the goods and services that ecosystems provide, says Reid.

Destructive policies such as the agriculture subsidies by the U.S., European Union and other developed nations favour production over environmental conservation, says Prabhu Pingali, director of the Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA) at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation.

"Those subsidies also reduce the ability of farmers in poor countries to grow food by keeping prices unrealistically low," Pingali said.

At the same time, developing countries need to change their policies that subsidise pesticides or electricity for water pumps because of their negative impact on ecosystems, he said. And farmers and others should be compensated for the environmental goods and services their lands provide society.

"By placing a monetary value on these services, we will be smarter about using them while creating alternative sources of income for people, from farmers in the United States to tribes in developing countries," he said.

"Politicians and other policymakers do not know the economic value of the goods and services provided by ecosystems," says Reid.

There have been few studies or measures of these and much more needs to be done, he acknowledges. "It's now time for us to measure the economic value of these services so we can make better decisions about our future."

But that doesn't prevent developing policies and taking actions now that reduce the pressure on species and preserve or increase biodiversity so that vital and fragile ecosystems will be more resilient, he says.

Copyright © 2006 IPS-Inter Press Service

How a northern forest can respond to warming

Here's another example of an ecosystem's inability to cope with sudden changes in a climate regime. Keep in mind that many of the global weather models assume that forest cover will act as a carbon sink, sucking CO2 from the atmosphere and mitigating its greenhouse effects. But dead trees give off CO2 as they rot, and the process of industrial logging creates lots of slash that often gets burned, yielding yet more CO2. Another problem is that living trees pump a lot of water vapor into the atmosphere, creating cloud cover which reflects sunlight (See albedo) and downwind precipitation. So fewer trees means more sunlight hitting (darker) ground, where it's absorbed, and less rainfall for ecosystem and human uses. There are some problems with assessing and modeling the balance between cooling via cloud reflection and warming by water vapor as a greenhouse gas. This conflict was a weak spot in earlier General Circulation Models (GCM) but has been one focus of recent model tweaks.

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'Rapid Warming' Spreads Havoc in Canada's Forests

Tiny Beetles Destroying Pines

By Doug Struck
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, March 1, 2006

QUESNEL, B.C. -- Millions of acres of Canada's lush green forests are
turning red in spasms of death. A voracious beetle, whose population has
exploded with the warming climate, is killing more trees than wildfires or
logging. The mountain pine beetle has infested an area three times the size of
Maryland, devastating swaths of lodgepole pines and reshaping the future of
the forest and the communities in it.

"It's pretty gut-wrenching," said Allan Carroll, a research scientist at
the Pacific Forestry Centre in Victoria, whose studies tracked a lock step
between warmer winters and the spread of the beetle. "People say climate
change is something for our kids to worry about. No. It's now."
Scientists fear the beetle will cross the Rocky Mountains and sweep across
the northern continent into areas where it used to be killed by severe cold
but where winters now are comparatively mild. Officials in neighboring
Alberta are setting fires and traps and felling thousands of trees in an
attempt to keep the beetle at bay.

"This is an all-out battle," said David Coutts, Alberta's minister of
sustainable resource development. The Canadian Forest Service calls it the
largest known insect infestation in North American history.
U.S. Forest Service officials say they are watching warily as the outbreak
has spread. The United States is less vulnerable because it lacks the
seamless forest of lodgepole pines that are a highway for the beetle in
Canada. So far, U.S. officials say, the outbreaks have been mostly in
isolated clumps of remote wilderness areas of northern Washington.
"It's a rapid warming" that is increasing the beetles' range, said Carroll.
"All the data show there are significant changes over widespread areas that
are going to cause us considerable amount of grief. Not only is it coming,
it's here."

"We are seeing this pine beetle do things that have never been recorded
before," said Michael Pelchat, a forestry officer in Quesnel, as he
followed moose tracks in the snow to examine a 100-year-old pine killed in
one season by the beetle. "They are attacking younger trees, and attacking
timber in altitudes they have never been before."

The tiny beetle has always lived in high areas from Arizona to northern
British Columbia, and occasionally populations have grown in limited
outbreaks. In Canada, where the beetle's favored lodgepole pine thrives, it
has been controlled by winters with early cold snaps or long killing spells
of 20 degrees below zero. But for more than a decade, forestry experts say,
the weather here has not been cold enough for long enough to kill the
beetle.

Scientists with the Canadian Forest Service say the average temperature of
winters here has risen by more than 4 degrees in the last century. "That's
not insignificant," said Jim Snetsinger, British Columbia's chief forester.
"Global warming is happening. We have to start to account for it."
The result is a swarm of beetles that has grown exponentially in the past
six years, flying from tree to tree. The advance is marked by broad swaths
of rust-red forest, the color pines turn before they drop all their needles
to become ghostly grey skeletons.

"It's depressing to see," said Steve Dodge, a British Columbia forestry
official whose office is along the Quesnel River. This town of 10,000 sits
in the heart of the province's vast evergreen woodlands. Steam billowing
from the kilns of a half-dozen sawmills and pulp plants enshroud the town,
which proudly calls itself the "Woodsmart City" in homage to the timber
industry that sustains it.In an attack played out millions of times over, a
female beetle no bigger than a rice grain finds an older lodgepole pine,
its favored host, and drills inside the bark. There, it eats a channel
straight up the tree, laying eggs as it goes. The tree fights back. It
pumps sap toward the bug and the new larvae, enveloping them in a mass of
the sticky substance. The tree then tries to eject its captives through a
small, crusty chute in the bark.

Countering, the beetle sends out a pheromone call for reinforcements. More
beetles arrive, mounting a mass attack. A fungus on the beetle, called the
blue stain fungus, works into the living wood, strangling its water flow.
The larvae begin eating at right angles to the original up-and-down
channel, sometimes girdling the tree, crossing channels made by other
beetles.

The pine is doomed. As it slowly dies, the larvae remain protected over the
winter. In spring, they burrow out of the bark and launch themselves into
the wind to their next victims. British Columbia is a buffet laid out before them. Years of successful battles against forest fires have allowed a thick concentration of old
lodgepole pines to grow -- a beetle feast that natural wildfire would have
stopped. "It was the perfect storm" of warmer weather and vulnerable old trees,
coupled with constraints that slowed logging of the infected wood, said
Douglas Routledge, who represents timber companies in the city of Prince
George.

At the province's Ministry of Forests and Range in Quesnel, forestry
officer Pelchat saw the beetle expansion coming as "a silent forest fire."
He and his colleagues launched an offensive to try to stop or at least
delay the invasion, all the while hoping for cold temperatures. They
searched out beetle-ridden trees, cutting them and burning them. They
thinned forests. They set out traps. But the deep freeze never came.
"We lost. They built up into an army and came across," Pelchat said.
Surveys show the beetle has infested 21 million acres and killed 411
million cubic feet of trees -- double the annual take by all the loggers in
Canada. In seven years or sooner, the Forest Service predicts, that kill
will nearly triple and 80 percent of the pines in the central British
Columbia forest will be dead.

Pelchat is now spending his time trying to plan recovery through
replanting. In this area, a mature pine forest takes 70 years to grow.
Meanwhile, the beetle is moving eastward. It has breached the natural wall
of the Rocky Mountains in places, threatening the tourist treasures of
national forest near Banff, Alberta, and is within striking distance of the
vast Northern Boreal Forest that reaches to the eastern seaboard.
"If that beetle is allowed to come any further, it will absolutely
devastate our eastern slope forests," said Coutts, in Alberta. "If we're
not prepared, it's going to infest all Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and
then northern Ontario in 20 years. This is the battlefront."

Ironically, Quesnel is booming now. The beetle has killed so many trees
that officials have more than doubled the allowable timber harvest, so
loggers can cut and haul as many dead trees as possible before they rot.
The icy roads are choked with giant trucks growling toward the mills,
loaded with logs marked with the telltale blue stain fungus.
In town, two sawmills and the plywood and pulp plants of the largest
company, West Fraser Mills, are "running flat-out," with shifts
round-the-clock, said Tom Turner, a manager there. He walked the catwalks
of a sawmill as whirling machines below grappled and twirled the offloaded
trees. Computers sized up each log, instantly figured the best cut, and
shoved it at furious speed through giant disk saws and planers to produce
lumber that rail cars would carry to home builders in the United States.
West Fraser is spending $100 million to upgrade the mill. Other companies
have added shifts and proposed new plants to make chipboard or wood-fuel
pellets. Property values in Quesnel are rising, rents are up, the local
shopping center is flourishing again and unemployment has dropped, said
Nate Bello, the mayor of Quesnel.

But the boom will end. When what people here call "beetlewood" is removed
or rots out -- and no one is sure how long that will take -- the forestry
industry "will be running at about half speed," Bello acknowledged.
He sees his chief challenge as figuring out how to convert Quesnel from a
one-industry town to something with a more diverse economic base. He and
city officials talk of attracting retirees and small, computer-based
businesses, and even of luring tourists to the area, despite the stark
industrial tableau of sawmills and pulp plants.

Some people in town say those are quixotic plans. "This town is going to
die," scoffed Pat Karey, 62, who spent 40 years at the sawmill. Other men
in the Quesnel cafe -- "Smokers Welcome" said the sign in the window --
nodded in assent.

"A mill job is $20 an hour, or $30 with benefits. The jobs they are talking
about bringing in are $8-an-hour jobs," said Del Boesem, whose runs a
business dismantling heavy logging machinery.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Climate Science (Another Tech Blog)» Climate Models

This is an interesting site. Study the categories in the box on the right for a little more focused coverage. Their stance seems to be that global predictions are both dicey and regionally only marginally relevant. More important considerations for thinking about the impacts of climate change are regional vulnerabilities and preparation measures, for instance what is the state of water supplies and patterns of usage.

Climate Science » Climate Models

Greenland Glaciers speeding up

I just went ahead and copied this, it's probably copyrighted. The link will get you to the site, which bears lots of exploring; it's climate science written by real climate scientists. The comments are very valuable, take the time to read them if you have it.

From Real Climate

In a recent paper in Science, Eric Rignot and Pannir Kanagaratnam present new satellite observations of the speed of glaciers of Greenland, and find that they are sliding towards the sea almost twice as fast as previously thought. Additionally, between 1996 and 2005, they detected a widespread glacier acceleration and consequently an increased rate of ice discharge from the Greenland ice sheet. However, previous papers have recently noted an increase in snow accumulation in the interior (i.e. Johanessen et al., 2005), so how do these different measurements fit into the larger picture of Greenland's net mass balance?

The measurements by Rignot & Kanagartnam were made with interferometers which measure the movement of the surface horizontally, and so is complimentary to the altimeter data published previously (which measures the absolute height of the ice). Overall, they found widespread increases in glacier speeds, and increases of about 30% in ice discharge rates. (Note that the satellite image shows that the glaciers in the east tend to slide far into the sea whereas on the western coast that happens less).

The higher velocity of the ice is thought to be related to higher temperatures causing increased melt-water which can penetrate to the base of the glacier and hence reduce the ground friction. However, this accelerated movement is not necessarily tied to an increased rate of melting of the Greenland ice, although it can be related. Surges of ice streams from the ice sheet can also occur due to increased accumulation at the head of the glacier. However, when the increased ice velocity is matched to a decreasing thickness that can be sign of net mass loss. These ideas are consistent with observations of surface melting which had a record extent in 2005, and has been increasing steadily (though with significant interannual variability) since 1993. Using the analysis of Hanna et al (2005) (based on the reanalysis datasets) for the surface mass balance, Rignot & Kanagartnam estimate that Greenland is on balance losing mass, and over the period of their study the ice sheet mass deficit (the amount of ice lost to the sea) has doubled increasing from 90 to 220 km3/year (an increase of 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr sea level equivalent - SLE).

In the earlier Science paper, Johanessen et al. found increased snow accumulation on the top of the interior Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2003. Above 1500m a.s.l in much of the interior Greenland they estimated an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year and below 1500m they observed a decreasing trend of -2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year. Hence, growth in the interior parts and a thinning of the ice nearer the edges. However, Johanessen et al. were not able to measure all of the coastal ranges. Indeed, the thinning of the margins and growth in the interior Greenland is an expected response to increased temperatures and more precipitation in a warmer climate. These results present no contradiction to the accelerated sliding near the coasts, but both will affect the ice/snow (fresh water) mass estimate. Whereas the finding of Rignot & Kanagaratnam suggests a larger sink of the frozen Greenland fresh water budget (the ice is dumped into the sea), the snow deposition in Greenland interiors is a source term (increases the amount of frozen fresh water). It does not matter for the general sea level in which form the water exists (liguid or solid/frozen) when it is discharged into the sea: The same mass of liquid water and immersed ice affect the water level equally (Archimede's principle).

A third relevant study is a recent paper in the Journal of Glaciology by Zwally et al. (2005) on the ice mass changes on Greenland and Antarctica. They use the same satellite obsevations (ERS 1 & 2) as Johanessen et al. and again find that the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 ± 2 Gt/year = -46 ± 2 km3/year below the equilibrium-line altitude - ELA), but growing in the inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/year = 58 ± 2 km3/year). The mass estimates have been converted to volume estimates here, assuming the density of ice is 0.917 g/cm3 at 0°C, so that the mass of one Gt of ice is roughly equivalent to 1.1km3 ice*. This means that the Greenland ice has an overall mass gain by +11 ± 3 Gt/year (=10 ± 2.7 km3/year) which they estimated implied a -0.03 mm/year SLE over the period 1992-2002.

The critical point for Greenland is whether the increased rate of glacier motion more than compensates for the greater accumulation on the surface. While the broad picture of what is happening is consistent between these papers, the bottom-line value for Greenland's mass balance is different in all three cases. Looking just at the dynamical changes observed by Rignot & Kanagaratnam, there is an increased discharge of about 0.28 mm/year SLE from 1996 to 2005, well outside the range of error bars. This is substantially more than the opposing changes in accumulation estimated by Johannessen et al and Zwally et al, and is unlikely to have been included in their assessments. Thus, the probability is that Greenland has been losing ice in the last decade. We should be careful to point out though that this is only for one decade, and doesn't prove anything about the longer term. As many of the studies make clear, there is a significant degree of interannual variability (related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the response to the cooling associated with Mt. Pinatubo) such that discerning longer term trends is hard.

The largest contributions to sea level rise so far are estimated to have come from thermal expansion, with the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps being of second order. Looking forward, the current (small) imbalance (whether positive or negative) of the Greenland ice sheet is not terribly important. What matters is if the melting were to increase significantly. Ongoing observations (most promisingly from the GRACE gravity measurements, Velicogna et al, 2005) will be useful in monitoring trends, but in order to have reasonable projections into the future, we would like to be able to rely on ice sheet models. Unfortunately, the physics of basal lubrication and the importance of ice dynamics highlighted in the Rignot & Kanagaratnam results are very poorly understood and not fully accounted for in current ice sheet models. Until those models include these effects, there is a danger that we may be under-appreciating the dynamic nature of the ice sheets.

References:

Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P; Janssens, I; Cappelen, J; Steffen, K; Stephens, A (2005) J. Geophys. Res.Vo. 110, D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641

Johanessen, O.M; Khvorostovsky, K; Miles, M.W; Bobylev, L.P. (2005) ScienceVo. 310 no. 5750, pp 1013-1016

Ringnot, E; Kanagaratnam, P (2006) ScienceVo. 311 no. 5763, pp 986-990

Velicogna, I; Wahr, J; Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P. (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett.Vo. 32, L05501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021948

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)

Record Coral Reef Dieoff

There's also another related article in USA today here

More on Acidification of Oceans

Source: Carnegie Institution

Posted: February 21, 2006
Oceans May Soon Be More Corrosive Than When The Dinosaurs Died

Increased carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly making the world's oceans more acidic and, if unabated, could cause a mass extinction of marine life similar to one that occurred 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs disappeared. Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology will present this research at the AGU/ASLO Ocean Sciences meeting in Honolulu, HI on Monday, Feb 20.

Caldeira's computer models have predicted that the oceans will become far more acidic within the next century. Now, he has compared this data with ocean chemistry evidence from the fossil record, and has found some startling similarities. The new finding offers a glimpse of what the future might hold for ocean life if society does not drastically curb carbon dioxide emissions.

"The geologic record tells us the chemical effects of ocean acidification would last tens of thousands of years," Caldeira said. "But biological recovery could take millions of years. Ocean acidification has the potential to cause extinction of many marine species."

When carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil, and gas dissolves in the ocean, some of it becomes carbonic acid. Over time, accumulation of this carbonic acid makes ocean water more acidic. When carbonic acid input is modest, sediments from the ocean floor can buffer the increases in acidity. But at the current rate of input--nearly 50 times the natural background from volcanoes and other sources--this buffering mechanism is overwhelmed. Previous estimates suggest that in less than 100 years, the pH of the oceans could drop by as much as half a unit from its natural value of 8.2 to about 7.7. (On the pH scale, lower numbers are more acidic and higher numbers are more basic.)

This drop in ocean pH would be especially damaging to marine animals such as corals that use calcium carbonate to make their shells. Under normal conditions the ocean is supersaturated with this mineral, making it easy for such creatures to grow. However, a more acidic ocean would more easily dissolve calcium carbonate, putting these species at particular risk.

The last time the oceans endured such a drastic change in chemistry was 65 million years ago, at about the same time the dinosaurs went extinct. Though researchers do not yet know exactly what caused this ancient acidification, it was directly related to the cataclysm that wiped out the giant beasts. The pattern of extinction in the ocean is consistent with ocean acidification--the fossil record reveals a precipitous drop in the number of species with calcium carbonate shells that live in the upper ocean--especially corals and plankton. During the same period, species with shells made from resistant silicate minerals were more likely to survive.

The world's oceans came close to an acidic catastrophe one other time about 55 million years ago, when the temperature of the Earth spiked and large amounts of methane and/or carbon dioxide flooded the atmosphere. There is no evidence, however, that this caused a mass extinction event.

"Ultimately, if we are not careful, our energy system could make the oceans corrosive to coral reefs and many other marine organisms," Caldeira cautions. "These results should help motivate the search for new energy sources, such as wind and solar, that can fuel economic growth without releasing dangerous carbon dioxide into the environment."

More ocean acidification news

Here's another report on the ocean acidification aspect of increasing the amount of CO2 in the air.

Ocean demise

Pretty long, thorough, and scary. I don't have any source of comment on or criticism of the claims, and the source is an established rabble-rouser. But generally reliable.

MotherJones.com | News

Ocean Plankton response to Warming

Published on Thursday, January 19, 2006 by the Independent / UK
Warmer Seas Will Wipe Out Plankton, Source of Ocean Life
by Steve Connor


The microscopic plants that underpin all life in the oceans are likely to be destroyed by global warming, a study has found.

Any plankton haul near the surface of the sea brings in a huge variety of life forms. Plants animals larvae adults vertebrates invertebrates carnivores and herbivores are all represented in the plankton community. Scientists have discovered a way that the vital plankton of the oceans can be starved of nutrients as a result of the seas getting warmer. They believe the findings have catastrophic implications for the entire marine habitat, which ultimately relies on plankton at the base of the food chain. The study is also potentially devastating because it has thrown up a new "positive feedback" mechanism that could result in more carbon dioxide ending up in the atmosphere to cause a runaway greenhouse effect.

Scientists led by Jef Huisman of the University of Amsterdam have calculated that global warming, which is causing the temperature of the sea surface to rise, will also interfere with the vital upward movement of nutrients from the deep sea. These nutrients, containing nitrogen, phosphorus and iron, are vital food for phytoplankton. If the supply is interrupted the plants die off, which prevents them from absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. "Global warming of the surface layers of the oceans reduces the upward transport of nutrients into the surface layers. This generates chaos among the plankton," the professor said.

The sea is one of nature's "carbon sinks", which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and deposits the carbon in a long-term store - dissolved in the ocean or deposited as organic waste on the seabed. The vast quantities of phytoplankton in the oceans absorb huge amounts of carbon dioxide. When the organisms die they fall to the seabed, carrying their store of carbon with them, where it stays for many thousands of years - thereby helping to counter global warming. "Plankton... forms the basis of the marine food web. Moreover, phytoplankton consumes the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide during photosynthesis," Professor Huisman said. "Uptake of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton across the vast expanses of the oceans reduces the rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere."

Warmer surface water caused by global warming causes greater temperature stratification, with warm surface layers sitting on deeper, colder layers, to prevent mixing of nutrients.

Professor Huisman shows in a study published in Nature that warmer sea surfaces will deliver a potentially devastating blow to the supply of deep-sea nutrients for phytoplankton. His computer model of the impact was tested on real measurements made in the Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures tend to be higher than in other parts of the world. He found that his computer predictions of how nutrient movement would be interrupted were accurate. "A larger temperature difference between two water layers implies less mixing of chemicals between these water layers," he said. "Global warming of the surface layers of the oceans, owing to climate change, strengthens the stratification and thereby reduces the upward mixing of nutrients."

Scientists had believed phytoplankton, which survives best at depths of about 100 metres, is largely stable and immune from the impact of global warming. "This model prediction was rather unexpected," Professor Huisman said. "Reduced stability of the plankton, caused by global warming of the oceans, may result in a decline of oceanic production and reduced sequestration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the oceans."

Vital link in the food chain

Microscopic plankton comes in animal and plant forms. The plants are known as phytoplankton. They lie at the base of the marine food chain because they convert sunlight and carbon dioxide into organic carbon - food for everything else.

Smaller animals such as shrimp-like krill feed on plankton and are themselves eaten by larger organisms, from small fish to the biggest whales. Without phytoplankton, the oceans would soon because marine deserts. Phytoplankton are also important because of the role they play in the carbon cycle, which determines how much carbon dioxide - the most important greenhouse gas - ends up in the atmosphere to cause global warming. Huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which dissolves in the oceans, are absorbed by phytoplankton and converted to organic carbon. When the phytoplankton die, their shells and bodies sink to the seabed, carrying this carbon with them.

Phytoplankton therefore acts as a carbon "sink" which takes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and deposits the carbon in long-term stores that can remain undisturbed for thousands of years. If the growth of phytoplankton is interrupted by global warming, this ability to act as a buffer against global warming is also affected - leading to a much-feared positive feedback.

© 2006 Independent News and Media Limited

TEMPERATURE and CLIMATE

In general a good site for numerical measures of the state of the world, with some interpretation.

Eco-Economy Indicators: TEMPERATURE and CLIMATE

Disaster Warning from UN: Death of the World's Rivers

I'm clumping some water supply info. Here's another heads-up. Certainly rings a bell for those of us in the Ozarks.

Disaster Warning from UN: Death of the World's Rivers

The Kolbert New Yorker articles

Here are links to the noted and very readable New Yorker articles by Elizabeth Kolbert that appeared about a year ago.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Thursday, March 09, 2006

More on the Silence of the Press

This came from Media Lens.

The following pretty much points the finger at the main cause for the lack of press coverage. I believe the situation that's described in the UK has a far more intense counterpart here in these United States.

Media Lens is watching the press in Britain and elsewhere, and offering criticism, by turns constructive and embarassing, if not shaming. The point here is that publishing the Lovelock article, and placing it in the context of ads from major contributors to Global Warming is (unwillingly perhaps) hypocritical. The denial of ad revenue is the big club of all those who want business-as-usual, "just a little longer" (and then they'll clean up??). You see they really do want to support the right thing, they just don't want their support to impact their ability to own more stuff, including politicians. Old joke: "Prosperity is spending money you don't have to buy things you don't need to impress people you don't like" I might add, "before the apocalypse starts".


January 16, 2006
RAPID RESPONSE MEDIA ALERT: THE POINT OF NO RETURN
Where James Lovelock Meets BP

Billions Will Die
The Independent and the Independent on Sunday (IoS) pride themselves on their environmental coverage. No doubt their editors will indicate today's dramatic front page as a case in point. The paper depicts the Earth from space overlaid by a dramatic headline: 'Green guru says: We are past the point of no return.' (Independent, January 16, 2006)

Scientist James Lovelock - who conceived the idea of the living Earth as a great super-organism, 'Gaia' - argues that, as a result of climate change, humanity is "past the point of no return" such that "civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive". (Michael McCarthy, 'Attempts to counter global warming are already doomed to failure, says Lovelock,' The Independent, January 16, 2006)

In an article which he describes as "the most difficult I have written", Lovelock predicts utter catastrophe for humankind:

"Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable... We will do our best to survive, but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of [CO2] emissions. The worst will happen..." (Lovelock, 'The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years,' The Independent, January 16, 2006)

Although Lovelock is here going beyond the scientific consensus - represented most authoritatively by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - there is evidence aplenty to support his argument. So how did we get to this point without the media even questioning the economic and political system that has now, if Lovelock is correct, pushed us over the edge of the abyss?

A clue is provided by the Independent's online version of environment editor Michael McCarthy's report. Here (www.independent.co.uk) readers are confronted by an ad from BP: "It's time to listen". Also visible is an advert for long-distance flights to the Seychelles in association with Emirates airlines. As the environment journalist who pointed this out to us today said: "You couldn't make this stuff up!" If we are to die, it seems that the Independent would rather we die laughing.

That government and big business have perpetrated climate crimes against humanity is never news. Instead, a collective insanity of irresponsible despair or suffocating silence rules the media. This extends even to those editors, journalists and newspapers that the public has been persuaded to trust.

Readers have now, however, started challenging the Independent for accepting fossil fuel advertising revenue. IoS deputy editor Michael Williams observed last year that some readers had praised environment editor Geoffrey Lean's reports on global warming. Alas, Williams added, "it was soured by some of you who wrote to say that it was hypocritical of us to accept advertisements from car manufacturers in the same issue of the paper". (Williams, 'Legal, decent, honest - but how green?', Independent on Sunday, February 13, 2005)

The deputy editor quoted a reader who urged the paper to "reconsider the policy of accepting advertisements from the very people who are helping to create the disaster".

Williams dismissed the idea out of hand: "I'm afraid this view is as impractical as it is naive." He added that if a ban were placed on car company advertising, for example, "we would have to raise our cover price to more than double that of our competitors, with the likelihood that we would go out of business".

End of argument! Much the same 'facts of life' were deployed by editors previously reluctant to give up lucrative tobacco advertising. (Note: we have addressed the issue of media alternatives in our alerts of May 27 and June 2, 2004; see www.medialens.org/alerts/archive_2004.php).

The IoS deputy editor concluded:

"For the national newspaper which has won by far the greatest number of awards for environmental campaigning over the past few years, that might be a bit of an own goal."

[Ed. note - means scoring a point against yoursef in your own soccer net]

To his credit, Williams has since referred briefly to the notion of "carbon rationing" - with everyone having an equal right to emit greenhouse gases - an idea that has been promoted by environmentalist Mayer Hillman. (Williams, 'No, our green principles have not taken flight,' The Independent on Sunday, January 15, 2006)

It remains to be seen whether the paper will link this proposal to the overarching framework of contraction and convergence (see 'Is the Earth Really Finished', March 1, 2005; http://www.medialens.org/alerts/05/050301_is_the_earth_really_finished.php). Moreover, the paper's refusal to question the planet-threatening paradigm of economic 'growth' is as glaring as ever.

Certainly, the IoS environment editor himself does not take kindly to being challenged on his - and his paper's - failure to tackle the root economic and political causes of climate change. Geoffrey Lean told one reader:

"Why don't you really read what we have been writing over the years rather than relying on media lens?" (Lean, email, February 18, 2005)

Other media professionals are equally blinkered. Observer editor, Roger Alton, for example:

"For Christ's sake, whatever you say about Mr Blair, nobody could accuse him of not doing his bit over the complex issue of climate change. He has boosted the science budget, given much funding to climate research, and we take Kyoto seriously." (Email, forwarded, May 21, 2004)

And Ian Mayes - the scrupulously independent ombudsman at the Guardian - responded sharply to one Media Lens reader's criticism of the limits to that newspaper's environmental reporting:

"you know quite well that the Guardian probably does more on the environment than anyone. Yet you continue to participate in a lobby [sic] that wilfully denies it. Why?" (Email, forwarded, May 24, 2004)

Why? Are these people mad?! When editors and journalists issue such dismissive responses with such conviction, it is indeed tempting to doubt one's sanity. Have we in fact got it horribly wrong? Are sceptical members of the public simply deluded? Is the 'quality' press really doing as much on climate change as can reasonably be expected? Green Euro MP, Caroline Lucas, accurately sums up the horrific reality:

"The mainstream corporate media all too often shares the same vested interests as the governments and businesses whose activities make up the content of its coverage... The public cannot rely on the corporate media to provide an honest and impartial view of corporate responsibility for crimes against humanity and the environment." (Email to David Cromwell, January 25, 2005)

These are elementary truths that cannot be mentioned, never mind discussed, in any meaningful way in the corporate news media.

###

The phrase 'can of worms' comes to mind. We deperately need to solve a problem that we can't talk about publicly in the mainstream press, for fear of stepping on the corporate toes that fund the press, but whose practices exacerbate the warming. More money comes to publishers as income from advertising than from sales of the final product. Lose enough advertisers, you lose profit and might lose the whole message. Alternately, lose advertisers, raise prices, lose readers and maybe lose the whole message.

The web is some kind of counterforce, since so much can be said without costing money. But getting exposure for the message on the big portals (like MSN, AOL, or Yahoo etc) is hard, since they are based on advertising profits as well. So the brainstorm challenge, one of them, is to find a sellable worldview that can keep some economic wheels turning without selling products that turn resources into taxic waste. There are imaginative people doing this creating, and they have good products, but they will have a hard time getting the attention of the NASCAR set. Insuficient testosterone roar, inadequate vampy allure.