Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Comments on the Stern report

Prometheus, the Science policy weblog from The University of Colorado, has some commentary on the Stern report, some of which question the editorial filters used in choosing excerpts from its sources. They find it alarmist, which doesn't mean there's no cause for alarm. Check out the previous post on this blog today.

A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making

Here's a detailed summary of the Stern report, which is the impetus for the highest level yet of British resolution to deal with Global Warming.

A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making

Monday, October 30, 2006

Gore to advise British on global warming

LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice PresidentAl Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.

Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News

Gore to advise British on global warming

LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice President
Al Gore

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Al Gore
, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.

Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Climate Change Economic Warning

Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist with the World Bank, will warn that governments need to tackle the problem head-on by cutting emissions or face economic ruin.

Tackle Climate Change or Face Deep Recession, World's Leaders Warned

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Warming link to amphibian disease

The culprit in the case of declining amphibian populations may be warming as much as pesticides, mediated by a fungal infection.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Warming link to amphibian disease

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Bill Mc Kibben - Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort

This is the guy who wrote "The End of Nature", prescient for noting that with climate change becoming global, there really wasn't anywhre left that was "natural", that all environments were under human impact.

How Close to Catastrophe? Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort

Global ecosystems 'face collapse'

This is from the stress of consumption of resources, setting aside the stresses of climate change with all its wildcards.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Global ecosystems 'face collapse'

U.S., EU hold climate talks despite Kyoto rift - Yahoo! News

U.S., EU hold climate talks despite Kyoto rift - Yahoo! News

Friday, October 20, 2006

Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'

As drought causes crop failures, people will move rather than starve.

Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'

Update on Greenland ice sheet

It's not melting as fast as some previous estimates, but still significant ice losses are occurring and more are expected.

Greenland ice sheet shrinking fast: NASA - Yahoo! News

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

UN to talk on climate adaptation

The focus is on helping developing countries cope with Climate Change. There's a big meeting in Africa next month.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UN to talk on climate adaptation

Monday, October 16, 2006

Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News

British and Belgian scientists have tracked down the intermediate steps from global warming to the specific effect that broke up the Larsen B ice shelf.

Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity

Apparently the Brits have figured out that getting ahead of the curve can be very good business, leaving the US, as with hybrid car technology, to play catch-up.

Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity

Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News

Finally some action inside the Republican party, but whether it will move it's energy company owners is unlikely.

Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News

U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News

It seems the western US is gaining temperature faster than the worldwide averages, by a factor of three. More drought and heat waves, deeper deserts.

Expert: U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News

It's like a slowly developing picture emerging in a sish in a darkroom. The details start to be visible.

Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News

Monday, October 09, 2006

Impact from the Deep - Scientific American

This is a featured article, positing that most of the major extinction events discovered by paleo-biology were not asteroid impacts but rather greenhouse type events engendered by oceanic gas releases. That a similar event might recur is a possibility, and another is that human gas releases put us on a similar trajectory.

Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Impact from the Deep -- [ EARTH SCIENCE ] -- Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast

A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists focusing on the Northeast US, seventh largest CO2 emitting area of the world.

Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast

The Century of Drought

This is a more detailed run-up to the Lovelock disaster. One third of the world in drought severe enough to stop agriculture, mostly affecting areas already drought prone, such as the US heartland, thought they seem more focused on the third world. I still haven't found the original publication, but this seems to be a very newly released result. Further, note that the areas affected are the ones where the "bio-fuel revolution" hopes to grow its crops.

The Century of Drought

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

WorldChanging: Tools, Models and Ideas for Building a Bright Green Future

An interesting book review of "HEAT: how to stop the planet burning" by George Monbiot.


WorldChanging: Tools, Models and Ideas for Building a Bright Green Future

Suppressed NOAA hurricane consensus statement

I copiied this from another blog. They did more research, and you might want to read their whole introduction, which also has some history of the supression effort. Follow the link below the title.


NOAA Fact Sheet: Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate

What has been Atlantic hurricane activity during the 20th Century?

-- Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 have been significantly more active, e.g. more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, that the previous two decades (figure 1)
-- Earlier periods, such as from 1945 to 1970 (and perhaps earlier), were apparently as active as the most recent decade.
-- The past decade has seen increased U.S. landfalls, however periods of even higher landfalls occurred early in the century (figure 2)
-- Strong natural decadal variations, as well as changes in data quality, density, sources, and methodologies for estimating hurricane strengths, lie at the heart of arguments whether or not a global warming contribution to a trend in tropical cyclone intensities can be detected.

How have ocean temperatures varied?

-- Over the 20th Century, global ocean temperatures and sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, (and Gulf of Mexico) have warmed at similar rates, indicating a role for global warming in these regions. (Figure 3)
-- Anomalous MDR, tropical Atlantic temperatures were significantly warmer than the global average from about 1930 to 1970 and after 2000. This warming is attributed to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)

What factors influence seasonal to multi-decadal hurricane activity

-- Hurricanes respond to a variety of environmental factors besides local ocean temperatures.
-- The tropical multi-decadal phenomenon and the El Nino/La Nina cycle are important factors in determining the conditions for seasonal to multi-decadal extremes in hurricane activity.
-- Research indicates that global warming can also increase hurricane intensities; there is less evidence for impacts on frequency.

How long will the current active period last?

-- Scientists disagree as to whether currently a sound basis exists for making projections on how long the current active period will last. The viewpoints are:

o Limited understanding of natural decadal variability, combined with its irregular temporal behavior, preclude definitive statements about how long the active period will last. (NOAA)
o One might expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity and U.S. landfalls for the next decade and beyond since the previous active period (1945-1970) lasted at least 25 years. (NOAA)
o Because of global warming the active period could persist

Programs of improvements to data sets, diagnostic studies for improved understanding, and systematic numerical experimentation studies will help to reveal the underlying causes for the recent active period and to predict how long the period of increased activity will last. NOAA is actively engaged in each of these activities.

Key Problems NOAA is working on

-- Understanding the dynamics of the AMO, its links to the larger-scale tropical climate variability, and developing an ocean monitoring and decadal prediction capability
-- Improving the quality and scope of hurricane relevant data sets
-- Numerically simulating and ultimately understanding seasonal to decadal hurricane variability
-- Understanding whether or not and to what degree anthropogenic forcing is having an influence on hurricanes
-- Developing a predictive understanding of global climate variability and trends and the impacts of these on extreme events
-- Making improvements to short range hurricane track and intensity forecasts through improved models and development of additional capabilities for hurricanes.

NOAA Resources for Additional Information

-- NWS/NCEP/CPC intraseasonal to multi-season climate forecasts; seasonal hurricane forecasts; diagnostic studies of major climate anomalies; real time monitoring of climate.
-- NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC issue daily and seasonal (in conjunction with CPC and HRD) operational hurricane forecasts; maintain and update the official Atlantic and Northeast Pacific hurricane databases from which observational climate studies are conducted
-- NESDIS/NCDC official archive for climate data sets; development of global tropical cyclone databases, analysis of historical frequency and strength of Atlantic Basin hurricanes to support engineering design and levee rebuilding in New Orleans, analyses of climate trends, monitoring and historical perspective on current seasons.
-- OAR/AOML/HRD & PHoD physical understanding of hurricane dynamics through use of research aircraft and field studies; improvements to hurricane track and intensity forecasts; monitoring of Atlantic ocean circulations; studies of Atlantic climate
-- OAR/GFDL studies of climate variability and change; development and use of the required climate models; development of models used for operational hurricane forecasts by NOAA and the NAVY; numerical studies of climate impacts on hurricanes and their decadal variability
-- OAR/ESRL diagnostic studies of climate variability and changes; impacts of climate on extreme events.
-- NOAA Climate Office intramural and extramural support for development of a predictive understanding of the climate system, the required observational capabilities, delivery of climate services.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006