Get this: "The president has long recognised that climate change is a serious issue. He has committed the nation to investing in new technologies."
There's also doubt that using Al Gore as the point man will have much effect in DC.
Analysts Sceptical about Report's Impact in US - and Benefits of Using Al Gore
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Comments on the Stern report
Prometheus, the Science policy weblog from The University of Colorado, has some commentary on the Stern report, some of which question the editorial filters used in choosing excerpts from its sources. They find it alarmist, which doesn't mean there's no cause for alarm. Check out the previous post on this blog today.
A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making
Here's a detailed summary of the Stern report, which is the impetus for the highest level yet of British resolution to deal with Global Warming.
A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making
A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making
Monday, October 30, 2006
Gore to advise British on global warming
LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.
British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice PresidentAl Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.
Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News
British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice PresidentAl Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.
Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News
Gore to advise British on global warming
LONDON - Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.
British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice President Al Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.
Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News
British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said former Vice President Al Gore, who has dedicated much time to warning of the effects of global warming, would advise the British government on climate change.
Gore to advise British on global warming - Yahoo! News
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Climate Change Economic Warning
Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist with the World Bank, will warn that governments need to tackle the problem head-on by cutting emissions or face economic ruin.
Tackle Climate Change or Face Deep Recession, World's Leaders Warned
Tackle Climate Change or Face Deep Recession, World's Leaders Warned
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Warming link to amphibian disease
The culprit in the case of declining amphibian populations may be warming as much as pesticides, mediated by a fungal infection.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Warming link to amphibian disease
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Warming link to amphibian disease
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Bill Mc Kibben - Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort
This is the guy who wrote "The End of Nature", prescient for noting that with climate change becoming global, there really wasn't anywhre left that was "natural", that all environments were under human impact.
How Close to Catastrophe? Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort
How Close to Catastrophe? Saving the Planet Will Require Community Effort
Global ecosystems 'face collapse'
This is from the stress of consumption of resources, setting aside the stresses of climate change with all its wildcards.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Global ecosystems 'face collapse'
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Global ecosystems 'face collapse'
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Friday, October 20, 2006
Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'
As drought causes crop failures, people will move rather than starve.
Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'
Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'
Update on Greenland ice sheet
It's not melting as fast as some previous estimates, but still significant ice losses are occurring and more are expected.
Greenland ice sheet shrinking fast: NASA - Yahoo! News
Greenland ice sheet shrinking fast: NASA - Yahoo! News
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
UN to talk on climate adaptation
The focus is on helping developing countries cope with Climate Change. There's a big meeting in Africa next month.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UN to talk on climate adaptation
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UN to talk on climate adaptation
Monday, October 16, 2006
Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News
British and Belgian scientists have tracked down the intermediate steps from global warming to the specific effect that broke up the Larsen B ice shelf.
Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News
Antarctic ice collapse linked to greenhouse gases - Yahoo! News
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity
Apparently the Brits have figured out that getting ahead of the curve can be very good business, leaving the US, as with hybrid car technology, to play catch-up.
Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity
Shell: Climate change is a business opportunity
Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News
Finally some action inside the Republican party, but whether it will move it's energy company owners is unlikely.
Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News
Schwarzenegger takes green roadshow to New York - Yahoo! News
U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News
It seems the western US is gaining temperature faster than the worldwide averages, by a factor of three. More drought and heat waves, deeper deserts.
Expert: U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News
Expert: U.S. West becoming warmer faster - Yahoo! News
Friday, October 13, 2006
Climate change inaction will cost trillions: study - Yahoo! News
A study by Friends of the Earth, and Tufts University
Climate change inaction will cost trillions: study - Yahoo! News
Climate change inaction will cost trillions: study - Yahoo! News
UK government plans bill on climate change - Yahoo! News
From Reuters. Apparently some conflict over how to approach goals.
UK government plans bill on climate change - Yahoo! News
UK government plans bill on climate change - Yahoo! News
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News
It's like a slowly developing picture emerging in a sish in a darkroom. The details start to be visible.
Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News
Climate change may hurt Asian economies - Yahoo! News
Monday, October 09, 2006
Impact from the Deep - Scientific American
This is a featured article, positing that most of the major extinction events discovered by paleo-biology were not asteroid impacts but rather greenhouse type events engendered by oceanic gas releases. That a similar event might recur is a possibility, and another is that human gas releases put us on a similar trajectory.
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Impact from the Deep -- [ EARTH SCIENCE ] -- Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Impact from the Deep -- [ EARTH SCIENCE ] -- Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast
A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists focusing on the Northeast US, seventh largest CO2 emitting area of the world.
Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast
Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast
The Century of Drought
This is a more detailed run-up to the Lovelock disaster. One third of the world in drought severe enough to stop agriculture, mostly affecting areas already drought prone, such as the US heartland, thought they seem more focused on the third world. I still haven't found the original publication, but this seems to be a very newly released result. Further, note that the areas affected are the ones where the "bio-fuel revolution" hopes to grow its crops.
The Century of Drought
The Century of Drought
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Suppressed NOAA hurricane consensus statement
I copiied this from another blog. They did more research, and you might want to read their whole introduction, which also has some history of the supression effort. Follow the link below the title.
NOAA Fact Sheet: Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate
What has been Atlantic hurricane activity during the 20th Century?
-- Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 have been significantly more active, e.g. more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, that the previous two decades (figure 1)
-- Earlier periods, such as from 1945 to 1970 (and perhaps earlier), were apparently as active as the most recent decade.
-- The past decade has seen increased U.S. landfalls, however periods of even higher landfalls occurred early in the century (figure 2)
-- Strong natural decadal variations, as well as changes in data quality, density, sources, and methodologies for estimating hurricane strengths, lie at the heart of arguments whether or not a global warming contribution to a trend in tropical cyclone intensities can be detected.
How have ocean temperatures varied?
-- Over the 20th Century, global ocean temperatures and sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, (and Gulf of Mexico) have warmed at similar rates, indicating a role for global warming in these regions. (Figure 3)
-- Anomalous MDR, tropical Atlantic temperatures were significantly warmer than the global average from about 1930 to 1970 and after 2000. This warming is attributed to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
What factors influence seasonal to multi-decadal hurricane activity
-- Hurricanes respond to a variety of environmental factors besides local ocean temperatures.
-- The tropical multi-decadal phenomenon and the El Nino/La Nina cycle are important factors in determining the conditions for seasonal to multi-decadal extremes in hurricane activity.
-- Research indicates that global warming can also increase hurricane intensities; there is less evidence for impacts on frequency.
How long will the current active period last?
-- Scientists disagree as to whether currently a sound basis exists for making projections on how long the current active period will last. The viewpoints are:
o Limited understanding of natural decadal variability, combined with its irregular temporal behavior, preclude definitive statements about how long the active period will last. (NOAA)
o One might expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity and U.S. landfalls for the next decade and beyond since the previous active period (1945-1970) lasted at least 25 years. (NOAA)
o Because of global warming the active period could persist
Programs of improvements to data sets, diagnostic studies for improved understanding, and systematic numerical experimentation studies will help to reveal the underlying causes for the recent active period and to predict how long the period of increased activity will last. NOAA is actively engaged in each of these activities.
Key Problems NOAA is working on
-- Understanding the dynamics of the AMO, its links to the larger-scale tropical climate variability, and developing an ocean monitoring and decadal prediction capability
-- Improving the quality and scope of hurricane relevant data sets
-- Numerically simulating and ultimately understanding seasonal to decadal hurricane variability
-- Understanding whether or not and to what degree anthropogenic forcing is having an influence on hurricanes
-- Developing a predictive understanding of global climate variability and trends and the impacts of these on extreme events
-- Making improvements to short range hurricane track and intensity forecasts through improved models and development of additional capabilities for hurricanes.
NOAA Resources for Additional Information
-- NWS/NCEP/CPC intraseasonal to multi-season climate forecasts; seasonal hurricane forecasts; diagnostic studies of major climate anomalies; real time monitoring of climate.
-- NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC issue daily and seasonal (in conjunction with CPC and HRD) operational hurricane forecasts; maintain and update the official Atlantic and Northeast Pacific hurricane databases from which observational climate studies are conducted
-- NESDIS/NCDC official archive for climate data sets; development of global tropical cyclone databases, analysis of historical frequency and strength of Atlantic Basin hurricanes to support engineering design and levee rebuilding in New Orleans, analyses of climate trends, monitoring and historical perspective on current seasons.
-- OAR/AOML/HRD & PHoD physical understanding of hurricane dynamics through use of research aircraft and field studies; improvements to hurricane track and intensity forecasts; monitoring of Atlantic ocean circulations; studies of Atlantic climate
-- OAR/GFDL studies of climate variability and change; development and use of the required climate models; development of models used for operational hurricane forecasts by NOAA and the NAVY; numerical studies of climate impacts on hurricanes and their decadal variability
-- OAR/ESRL diagnostic studies of climate variability and changes; impacts of climate on extreme events.
-- NOAA Climate Office intramural and extramural support for development of a predictive understanding of the climate system, the required observational capabilities, delivery of climate services.
NOAA Fact Sheet: Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate
What has been Atlantic hurricane activity during the 20th Century?
-- Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 have been significantly more active, e.g. more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, that the previous two decades (figure 1)
-- Earlier periods, such as from 1945 to 1970 (and perhaps earlier), were apparently as active as the most recent decade.
-- The past decade has seen increased U.S. landfalls, however periods of even higher landfalls occurred early in the century (figure 2)
-- Strong natural decadal variations, as well as changes in data quality, density, sources, and methodologies for estimating hurricane strengths, lie at the heart of arguments whether or not a global warming contribution to a trend in tropical cyclone intensities can be detected.
How have ocean temperatures varied?
-- Over the 20th Century, global ocean temperatures and sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, (and Gulf of Mexico) have warmed at similar rates, indicating a role for global warming in these regions. (Figure 3)
-- Anomalous MDR, tropical Atlantic temperatures were significantly warmer than the global average from about 1930 to 1970 and after 2000. This warming is attributed to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
What factors influence seasonal to multi-decadal hurricane activity
-- Hurricanes respond to a variety of environmental factors besides local ocean temperatures.
-- The tropical multi-decadal phenomenon and the El Nino/La Nina cycle are important factors in determining the conditions for seasonal to multi-decadal extremes in hurricane activity.
-- Research indicates that global warming can also increase hurricane intensities; there is less evidence for impacts on frequency.
How long will the current active period last?
-- Scientists disagree as to whether currently a sound basis exists for making projections on how long the current active period will last. The viewpoints are:
o Limited understanding of natural decadal variability, combined with its irregular temporal behavior, preclude definitive statements about how long the active period will last. (NOAA)
o One might expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity and U.S. landfalls for the next decade and beyond since the previous active period (1945-1970) lasted at least 25 years. (NOAA)
o Because of global warming the active period could persist
Programs of improvements to data sets, diagnostic studies for improved understanding, and systematic numerical experimentation studies will help to reveal the underlying causes for the recent active period and to predict how long the period of increased activity will last. NOAA is actively engaged in each of these activities.
Key Problems NOAA is working on
-- Understanding the dynamics of the AMO, its links to the larger-scale tropical climate variability, and developing an ocean monitoring and decadal prediction capability
-- Improving the quality and scope of hurricane relevant data sets
-- Numerically simulating and ultimately understanding seasonal to decadal hurricane variability
-- Understanding whether or not and to what degree anthropogenic forcing is having an influence on hurricanes
-- Developing a predictive understanding of global climate variability and trends and the impacts of these on extreme events
-- Making improvements to short range hurricane track and intensity forecasts through improved models and development of additional capabilities for hurricanes.
NOAA Resources for Additional Information
-- NWS/NCEP/CPC intraseasonal to multi-season climate forecasts; seasonal hurricane forecasts; diagnostic studies of major climate anomalies; real time monitoring of climate.
-- NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC issue daily and seasonal (in conjunction with CPC and HRD) operational hurricane forecasts; maintain and update the official Atlantic and Northeast Pacific hurricane databases from which observational climate studies are conducted
-- NESDIS/NCDC official archive for climate data sets; development of global tropical cyclone databases, analysis of historical frequency and strength of Atlantic Basin hurricanes to support engineering design and levee rebuilding in New Orleans, analyses of climate trends, monitoring and historical perspective on current seasons.
-- OAR/AOML/HRD & PHoD physical understanding of hurricane dynamics through use of research aircraft and field studies; improvements to hurricane track and intensity forecasts; monitoring of Atlantic ocean circulations; studies of Atlantic climate
-- OAR/GFDL studies of climate variability and change; development and use of the required climate models; development of models used for operational hurricane forecasts by NOAA and the NAVY; numerical studies of climate impacts on hurricanes and their decadal variability
-- OAR/ESRL diagnostic studies of climate variability and changes; impacts of climate on extreme events.
-- NOAA Climate Office intramural and extramural support for development of a predictive understanding of the climate system, the required observational capabilities, delivery of climate services.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Summit addresses climate change costs
Seems folks at the top are getting the message, but it still is mostly talk.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Climate costs top summit's agenda
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Climate costs top summit's agenda
Carl Wunsch, The Economist and the Gulf Stream
Just out, and worth reading for making terminologies clearer as well as phenomena.
RealClimate » Carl Wunsch, The Economist and the Gulf Stream
RealClimate » Carl Wunsch, The Economist and the Gulf Stream
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Science and action on climate change diverging
Action stagnant, warnings more strident.
Science and action on climate change diverging: UK - Yahoo! News
Science and action on climate change diverging: UK - Yahoo! News
Friday, September 29, 2006
Rare Mineral Further Implicates CO2 in Last Global Warming
This is interesting since it's a fairly deep time proxy situation.
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Rare Mineral Further Implicates CO2 in Last Global Warming
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Rare Mineral Further Implicates CO2 in Last Global Warming
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
NASA GISS: Research News: NASA Study Finds World Warmth Edging Ancient Levels
Here's a better link for the Hansen report.
NASA GISS: Research News: NASA Study Finds World Warmth Edging Ancient Levels
NASA GISS: Research News: NASA Study Finds World Warmth Edging Ancient Levels
Earth may be at warmest point in 1 million years - Yahoo! News
The contrast of current conditions with any near precedent just keeps growing.
Earth may be at warmest point in 1 million years - Yahoo! News
Earth may be at warmest point in 1 million years - Yahoo! News
Monday, September 25, 2006
Global Warming Takes a Break - Yahoo! News
The pace isn't relentless, and it seems that aerosols may be mitigating factors. Maybe we should be happy about dirty coal burning plants and untunes engines, and a big cheer for the occasional volcano.
Global Warming Takes a Break - Yahoo! News
Global Warming Takes a Break - Yahoo! News
60 Years to Restore the Ozone Layer Over Antarctica
What I find interesting is that this is a problem that has received strong and definitive world wide action, that's effective, and still the momentum of the global processes is such that I won't see the solution in my lifetime. The perspective that throws on the response to global warming is depressing, more so than the already dismal outlook that I can't avoid.
60 Years to Restore the Ozone Layer Over Antarctica
60 Years to Restore the Ozone Layer Over Antarctica
Mass Tourism and Climate Change
Another of the interactions of warming and business as usual, ie, expanding.
Mass Tourism and Climate Change Could Lead to Destruction of World's Wonders
Mass Tourism and Climate Change Could Lead to Destruction of World's Wonders
Friday, September 22, 2006
Sorry about the gap
I've been away from my normal internet resources, and haven't been posting, but will get some catch-up done in the next couple of days. Thanks for your patience.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Study acquits sun of climate change, blames humans - Yahoo! News
One of the lingering alternative explanations for warming has been changes in solar output. This study has exonerated the Sun from a being a major contributor.
Study acquits sun of climate change, blames humans - Yahoo! News
Study acquits sun of climate change, blames humans - Yahoo! News
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Permafrost Methane release accelerating
This story emerged about a year ago when large areas of Siberian permafrost were detected to be outgassing methane. It appears that folks have made more careful measurements since then, and releases may be greater than current models are using.
Scientists see new global warming threat - Yahoo! News
Scientists see new global warming threat - Yahoo! News
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Deep ice tells long climate story
Nothing in the 800,00 year data column matches the current levels of CO2.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Deep ice tells long climate story
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Deep ice tells long climate story
RealClimate The beginning of an IPCC response
They immediately point out errors of interpretation in the early news releases, and the more important ebsnce from the models of new methane and other feedbacks.
RealClimate » Chinese whispers in Australia
RealClimate » Chinese whispers in Australia
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Climate panel lowers global warming forecast: report - Yahoo! News
IPCC draft is less pessimistic, but I'm waiting to see the commenatry on Real Climate.
Climate panel lowers global warming forecast: report - Yahoo! News
Climate panel lowers global warming forecast: report - Yahoo! News
Global Warming Increases Gene Crossovers in Fruit Flies
The base lines were widespread latitude correlations over the last 25 years. More dynamic invert evolution? Maybe microbes too (no data yet)
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Global Warming Shows Up in Fly Genes
Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: Global Warming Shows Up in Fly Genes
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release
Here's another one of those positive feedback situations. Global warming increases oceanic oil seeps, which release more methane, which is a strong greenhouse gas.
Scientific American.com: Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release
Scientific American.com: Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release
Ocean plankton absorb less CO2
Less of a carbon sink than the models had calculated, due to lowered iron cocentrations. What's causing that isn't clear.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Ocean plankton absorb less CO2
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Ocean plankton absorb less CO2
Study: Summer is Getting Longer - Yahoo! News
Thought it was just your imagination? well, no, not really.
Study: Summer is Getting Longer - Yahoo! News
Study: Summer is Getting Longer - Yahoo! News
California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight - Yahoo! News
Once more California seems to be a different nation than the one centered in Washington DC. Fortunately, it's such a large market that its regulations and requirements affect products all through the country, both directly and as a pace-setter.
California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight - Yahoo! News
California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight - Yahoo! News
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Monday, August 28, 2006
Disaster-prone China takes heed of global warming - Yahoo! News
These are the folks who will rule the 21st century, if there's anything left to rule.
Disaster-prone China takes heed of global warming - Yahoo! News
Disaster-prone China takes heed of global warming - Yahoo! News
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Thursday, August 24, 2006
McKibben on Global Warming
Bill McKibben, who had a book about twenty years ago called "The End of Nature", which presciently pointed out that given human effects on the entire body of the atmosphere, there were no truly natural, that is, untouched, places on the planet. This is another call for action.
Finally, Fired up over Global Warming
Finally, Fired up over Global Warming
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Insurance Industry faces climate change
I ran into this on a another climate blog. It's interesting that they are facing the risks as a category, rather than trying to factor the climate change effects into the other categories of risk where a lot of the trouble is expressed. Parsing the damages by category is always a crap shoot with insurance coverage. On the gulf coast a policy would cover the wind taking a roof off, but not the wind driving a storm surge flood.
Plugged in: Insurance companies grapple with global warming - Aug. 23, 2006
Plugged in: Insurance companies grapple with global warming - Aug. 23, 2006
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Simple arguments for why climate can be predicted
Some folks are puzzled by the apparent contradiction between the inability to predict short term weather (beyond a few days), and the modeling of longer term climate change, which grows more accurate as the models are fine tuned. This post on Real Cimate addresses some of the reasons that this contradiction is only apparent, and why the two projects are critters of different kinds.
RealClimate » Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted
RealClimate » Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Saturday, August 12, 2006
Triple dose of morbidity
I found it strange that these three stories came up on AP science at the same time.
First, dying Aspens
Then the Pacific dead zone growing
And then mysterious die-offs of Salt Marsh vegetation
I'm not sure that they are all caused by globalwarming, though I suspect that it is at last a stressor on most systems.
First, dying Aspens
Then the Pacific dead zone growing
And then mysterious die-offs of Salt Marsh vegetation
I'm not sure that they are all caused by globalwarming, though I suspect that it is at last a stressor on most systems.
Greenland's Ice Melting is a Fright
This is getting published in Science today, and seems to be new and more alarming result.
Greenland's Ice Cap is Melting at a Frighteningly Fast Rate
Greenland's Ice Cap is Melting at a Frighteningly Fast Rate
Saturday, August 05, 2006
The Canary Project
Here is a site with before and after photos of areas being affected by Global Warming
The Canary Project
The Canary Project
The Climate Group
Link
Website for this "independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing business and government leadership on climate change. ... based in the UK, the USA and Australia." Features interviews with international business and government leaders, case studies about actions being taken by governmental and corporate actors "to minimize their carbon footprints," and suggestions for individuals for reducing emissions (with links to related sites). Also includes links to news stories, online publications, and more.
Website for this "independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing business and government leadership on climate change. ... based in the UK, the USA and Australia." Features interviews with international business and government leaders, case studies about actions being taken by governmental and corporate actors "to minimize their carbon footprints," and suggestions for individuals for reducing emissions (with links to related sites). Also includes links to news stories, online publications, and more.
RealClimate » Amazonian drought
Since I posted an alarming article on this drought, it's probably good that a more complete and scientifically level-headed evaluation follow. Please check this out. I still have visions of more forest fires as the heat continues to build, and the tropics aren't as adapted to occasional catastrophic fire as the more northern fire regimes. More info can be chased down by Googling Stephen J Pyne
RealClimate » Amazonian drought
RealClimate » Amazonian drought
Friday, August 04, 2006
US congress body supports Climate Science findings
An advisory committee of the US congress has backed the IPCC findings.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Backing for 'hockey stick' graph
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Backing for 'hockey stick' graph
Scientists call for more alternative energy researc
It's so obvious it's ho-hum, but our leaders, so-called, still need to be reminded daily.
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Top scientist makes climate plea
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Top scientist makes climate plea
Saturday, July 29, 2006
California heat kills 25,000 cattle: official
More heat wave news, it's not just people.
BREITBART.COM - California heat kills 25,000 cattle: official
BREITBART.COM - California heat kills 25,000 cattle: official
2003 Europen heatwave report
Heat waves are serious business, and more are expected.
July 28, 2006: SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003
July 28, 2006: SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Limits of Nuclear Energy in warmer world
There are several ironic twists in this story. Hotter weather means hotter reactors to cover cooling energy demands, but the reactrs have to shed their heat to the environment, usually to rivers or cooling lakes, and those may be damaged when the design criteria are over-ridden in a heat wave emergency.
European Heat Wave Shows Limits of Nuclear Energy - Yahoo! News
European Heat Wave Shows Limits of Nuclear Energy - Yahoo! News
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Soya Crops Expansion halts for a while
One of the contributors to the rainforest problems in the Amazon ha ben a rapid expansion on soya farming, causing more deforestation than logging and grazing. This is some kind of reprieve, but may be partially a reaction to the drought already in progress, caused most likely partially by soya expansion. Loss of forest is interrupting the Amazon's ability to water itself by its own transpiration and subsequent cloud formation.
Moratorium on New Soya Crops Wins Reprieve For Rainforest
Moratorium on New Soya Crops Wins Reprieve For Rainforest
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
FOXNews.com - Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change - Science News | Current Articles
I picked this up off another blog. Pretty amazing that the hired guns of the oil companies (and maybe their subsidiaries in congress) are getting the message.
FOXNews.com - Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change - Science News | Current Articles
FOXNews.com - Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change - Science News | Current Articles
Lovelock's book - The Revenge of Gaia
It was reading the reviews and some qotes from this book, now available in the US, (and even at my local library after I asked them to get a copy), that got me started on this blog. I felt dismal and hopeless, obvious if you read the first posts. Then I got lost in details, and read another book in the Meantime, "the Weather Makers", by Flannery, which didn't have so dismala take on the situation. Hope crept back. The alarm was more gradualist, time wasn't so critical, final scenarios from political incompetence weren't so drastic. Almost soothing.
I'm back to hopeless. Lovelock's book is devastating, and his science is as solid as the less alarming, but less prone to overstatemant academic variety. The endless stream of bad news as told in this blog and elsewhere is daunting and depressing. I'm back to figuring how to get to Alaska and how to stay there. Get a job in the oil industry? Good birding for awhile, and severe seasonal bipolar roller-coaster. And wondering if it's even worth it.
An interesting aspect of the book is Lovelock's insistence that the only currently available time-buying technology is nuclear power generation. That doesn't sit well with an old activist, but his logic is simple: the disaster of rampant global warming is far worse than all the problems associated with nukes. I can see his point, but it's hard to swallow. And even that is a no guarantee solution. I'm uneasy about the proliferation of nuclear materials in an increasingly unstable and desperate world, witness the current eruption in the middle east, and the US encouragement and support of (nuclear armed) Israel.
Another strange glitch in the book is his opposition to wind power. He seems to believe that it's beside the point, though it is proving its effectiveness by leaps and bounds. Still, one gets the impression that his real objection is aesthetic, that he sees it ruining the countryside which he treasures, especially parts that haven't been taken over by industrial agriculture. In light of his perspective on nukes, the clear lesser-of-two-evils thinking there, it's a glaring inconsistency. I wonder how much Tony Blair's advocacy of a nuclear ramping up to combat carbon emissions stems from Lovelock's stance? I don't know how well they're acquainted, but Lovelock is one of the world's prominant public scientists.
I still haven't seen the Al Gore movie. Guess I'll have to cobble up a review of that too.
I'm back to hopeless. Lovelock's book is devastating, and his science is as solid as the less alarming, but less prone to overstatemant academic variety. The endless stream of bad news as told in this blog and elsewhere is daunting and depressing. I'm back to figuring how to get to Alaska and how to stay there. Get a job in the oil industry? Good birding for awhile, and severe seasonal bipolar roller-coaster. And wondering if it's even worth it.
An interesting aspect of the book is Lovelock's insistence that the only currently available time-buying technology is nuclear power generation. That doesn't sit well with an old activist, but his logic is simple: the disaster of rampant global warming is far worse than all the problems associated with nukes. I can see his point, but it's hard to swallow. And even that is a no guarantee solution. I'm uneasy about the proliferation of nuclear materials in an increasingly unstable and desperate world, witness the current eruption in the middle east, and the US encouragement and support of (nuclear armed) Israel.
Another strange glitch in the book is his opposition to wind power. He seems to believe that it's beside the point, though it is proving its effectiveness by leaps and bounds. Still, one gets the impression that his real objection is aesthetic, that he sees it ruining the countryside which he treasures, especially parts that haven't been taken over by industrial agriculture. In light of his perspective on nukes, the clear lesser-of-two-evils thinking there, it's a glaring inconsistency. I wonder how much Tony Blair's advocacy of a nuclear ramping up to combat carbon emissions stems from Lovelock's stance? I don't know how well they're acquainted, but Lovelock is one of the world's prominant public scientists.
I still haven't seen the Al Gore movie. Guess I'll have to cobble up a review of that too.
More detail on melting Greenland glaciers
From Real Climate (I didn't note the date)
In a recent paper in Science, Eric Rignot and Pannir Kanagaratnam present new satellite observations of the speed of glaciers of Greenland, and find that they are sliding towards the sea almost twice as fast as previously thought. Additionally, between 1996 and 2005, they detected a widespread glacier acceleration and consequently an increased rate of ice discharge from the Greenland ice sheet. However, previous papers have recently noted an increase in snow accumulation in the interior (i.e. Johanessen et al., 2005), so how do these different measurements fit into the larger picture of Greenland's net mass balance?
The measurements by Rignot & Kanagartnam were made with interferometers which measure the movement of the surface horizontally, and so is complimentary to the altimeter data published previously (which measures the absolute height of the ice). Overall, they found widespread increases in glacier speeds, and increases of about 30% in ice discharge rates. (Note that the satellite image shows that the glaciers in the east tend to slide far into the sea whereas on the western coast that happens less).
The higher velocity of the ice is thought to be related to higher temperatures causing increased melt-water which can penetrate to the base of the glacier and hence reduce the ground friction. However, this accelerated movement is not necessarily tied to an increased rate of melting of the Greenland ice, although it can be related. Surges of ice streams from the ice sheet can also occur due to increased accumulation at the head of the glacier. However, when the increased ice velocity is matched to a decreasing thickness that can be sign of net mass loss. These ideas are consistent with observations of surface melting which had a record extent in 2005, and has been increasing steadily (though with significant interannual variability) since 1993. Using the analysis of Hanna et al (2005) (based on the reanalysis datasets) for the surface mass balance, Rignot & Kanagartnam estimate that Greenland is on balance losing mass, and over the period of their study the ice sheet mass deficit (the amount of ice lost to the sea) has doubled increasing from 90 to 220 km3/year (an increase of 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr sea level equivalent - SLE).
In the earlier Science paper, Johanessen et al. found increased snow accumulation on the top of the interior Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2003. Above 1500m a.s.l in much of the interior Greenland they estimated an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year and below 1500m they observed a decreasing trend of -2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year. Hence, growth in the interior parts and a thinning of the ice nearer the edges. However, Johanessen et al. were not able to measure all of the coastal ranges. Indeed, the thinning of the margins and growth in the interior Greenland is an expected response to increased temperatures and more precipitation in a warmer climate. These results present no contradiction to the accelerated sliding near the coasts, but both will affect the ice/snow (fresh water) mass estimate. Whereas the finding of Rignot & Kanagaratnam suggests a larger sink of the frozen Greenland fresh water budget (the ice is dumped into the sea), the snow deposition in Greenland interiors is a source term (increases the amount of frozen fresh water). It does not matter for the general sea level in which form the water exists (liguid or solid/frozen) when it is discharged into the sea: The same mass of liquid water and immersed ice affect the water level equally (Archimede's principle).
A third relevant study is a recent paper in the Journal of Glaciology by Zwally et al. (2005) on the ice mass changes on Greenland and Antarctica. They use the same satellite obsevations (ERS 1 & 2) as Johanessen et al. and again find that the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 ± 2 Gt/year = -46 ± 2 km3/year below the equilibrium-line altitude - ELA), but growing in the inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/year = 58 ± 2 km3/year). The mass estimates have been converted to volume estimates here, assuming the density of ice is 0.917 g/cm3 at 0°C, so that the mass of one Gt of ice is roughly equivalent to 1.1km3 ice*. This means that the Greenland ice has an overall mass gain by +11 ± 3 Gt/year (=10 ± 2.7 km3/year) which they estimated implied a -0.03 mm/year SLE over the period 1992-2002.
The critical point for Greenland is whether the increased rate of glacier motion more than compensates for the greater accumulation on the surface. While the broad picture of what is happening is consistent between these papers, the bottom-line value for Greenland's mass balance is different in all three cases. Looking just at the dynamical changes observed by Rignot & Kanagaratnam, there is an increased discharge of about 0.28 mm/year SLE from 1996 to 2005, well outside the range of error bars. This is substantially more than the opposing changes in accumulation estimated by Johannessen et al and Zwally et al, and is unlikely to have been included in their assessments. Thus, the probability is that Greenland has been losing ice in the last decade. We should be careful to point out though that this is only for one decade, and doesn't prove anything about the longer term. As many of the studies make clear, there is a significant degree of interannual variability (related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the response to the cooling associated with Mt. Pinatubo) such that discerning longer term trends is hard.
The largest contributions to sea level rise so far are estimated to have come from thermal expansion, with the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps being of second order. Looking forward, the current (small) imbalance (whether positive or negative) of the Greenland ice sheet is not terribly important. What matters is if the melting were to increase significantly. Ongoing observations (most promisingly from the GRACE gravity measurements, Velicogna et al, 2005) will be useful in monitoring trends, but in order to have reasonable projections into the future, we would like to be able to rely on ice sheet models. Unfortunately, the physics of basal lubrication and the importance of ice dynamics highlighted in the Rignot & Kanagaratnam results are very poorly understood and not fully accounted for in current ice sheet models. Until those models include these effects, there is a danger that we may be under-appreciating the dynamic nature of the ice sheets.
References:
Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P; Janssens, I; Cappelen, J; Steffen, K; Stephens, A (2005) J. Geophys. Res.Vo. 110, D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641
Johanessen, O.M; Khvorostovsky, K; Miles, M.W; Bobylev, L.P. (2005) ScienceVo. 310 no. 5750, pp 1013-1016
Ringnot, E; Kanagaratnam, P (2006) ScienceVo. 311 no. 5763, pp 986-990
Velicogna, I; Wahr, J; Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P. (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett.Vo. 32, L05501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021948
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)
In a recent paper in Science, Eric Rignot and Pannir Kanagaratnam present new satellite observations of the speed of glaciers of Greenland, and find that they are sliding towards the sea almost twice as fast as previously thought. Additionally, between 1996 and 2005, they detected a widespread glacier acceleration and consequently an increased rate of ice discharge from the Greenland ice sheet. However, previous papers have recently noted an increase in snow accumulation in the interior (i.e. Johanessen et al., 2005), so how do these different measurements fit into the larger picture of Greenland's net mass balance?
The measurements by Rignot & Kanagartnam were made with interferometers which measure the movement of the surface horizontally, and so is complimentary to the altimeter data published previously (which measures the absolute height of the ice). Overall, they found widespread increases in glacier speeds, and increases of about 30% in ice discharge rates. (Note that the satellite image shows that the glaciers in the east tend to slide far into the sea whereas on the western coast that happens less).
The higher velocity of the ice is thought to be related to higher temperatures causing increased melt-water which can penetrate to the base of the glacier and hence reduce the ground friction. However, this accelerated movement is not necessarily tied to an increased rate of melting of the Greenland ice, although it can be related. Surges of ice streams from the ice sheet can also occur due to increased accumulation at the head of the glacier. However, when the increased ice velocity is matched to a decreasing thickness that can be sign of net mass loss. These ideas are consistent with observations of surface melting which had a record extent in 2005, and has been increasing steadily (though with significant interannual variability) since 1993. Using the analysis of Hanna et al (2005) (based on the reanalysis datasets) for the surface mass balance, Rignot & Kanagartnam estimate that Greenland is on balance losing mass, and over the period of their study the ice sheet mass deficit (the amount of ice lost to the sea) has doubled increasing from 90 to 220 km3/year (an increase of 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr sea level equivalent - SLE).
In the earlier Science paper, Johanessen et al. found increased snow accumulation on the top of the interior Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2003. Above 1500m a.s.l in much of the interior Greenland they estimated an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year and below 1500m they observed a decreasing trend of -2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year. Hence, growth in the interior parts and a thinning of the ice nearer the edges. However, Johanessen et al. were not able to measure all of the coastal ranges. Indeed, the thinning of the margins and growth in the interior Greenland is an expected response to increased temperatures and more precipitation in a warmer climate. These results present no contradiction to the accelerated sliding near the coasts, but both will affect the ice/snow (fresh water) mass estimate. Whereas the finding of Rignot & Kanagaratnam suggests a larger sink of the frozen Greenland fresh water budget (the ice is dumped into the sea), the snow deposition in Greenland interiors is a source term (increases the amount of frozen fresh water). It does not matter for the general sea level in which form the water exists (liguid or solid/frozen) when it is discharged into the sea: The same mass of liquid water and immersed ice affect the water level equally (Archimede's principle).
A third relevant study is a recent paper in the Journal of Glaciology by Zwally et al. (2005) on the ice mass changes on Greenland and Antarctica. They use the same satellite obsevations (ERS 1 & 2) as Johanessen et al. and again find that the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 ± 2 Gt/year = -46 ± 2 km3/year below the equilibrium-line altitude - ELA), but growing in the inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/year = 58 ± 2 km3/year). The mass estimates have been converted to volume estimates here, assuming the density of ice is 0.917 g/cm3 at 0°C, so that the mass of one Gt of ice is roughly equivalent to 1.1km3 ice*. This means that the Greenland ice has an overall mass gain by +11 ± 3 Gt/year (=10 ± 2.7 km3/year) which they estimated implied a -0.03 mm/year SLE over the period 1992-2002.
The critical point for Greenland is whether the increased rate of glacier motion more than compensates for the greater accumulation on the surface. While the broad picture of what is happening is consistent between these papers, the bottom-line value for Greenland's mass balance is different in all three cases. Looking just at the dynamical changes observed by Rignot & Kanagaratnam, there is an increased discharge of about 0.28 mm/year SLE from 1996 to 2005, well outside the range of error bars. This is substantially more than the opposing changes in accumulation estimated by Johannessen et al and Zwally et al, and is unlikely to have been included in their assessments. Thus, the probability is that Greenland has been losing ice in the last decade. We should be careful to point out though that this is only for one decade, and doesn't prove anything about the longer term. As many of the studies make clear, there is a significant degree of interannual variability (related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the response to the cooling associated with Mt. Pinatubo) such that discerning longer term trends is hard.
The largest contributions to sea level rise so far are estimated to have come from thermal expansion, with the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps being of second order. Looking forward, the current (small) imbalance (whether positive or negative) of the Greenland ice sheet is not terribly important. What matters is if the melting were to increase significantly. Ongoing observations (most promisingly from the GRACE gravity measurements, Velicogna et al, 2005) will be useful in monitoring trends, but in order to have reasonable projections into the future, we would like to be able to rely on ice sheet models. Unfortunately, the physics of basal lubrication and the importance of ice dynamics highlighted in the Rignot & Kanagaratnam results are very poorly understood and not fully accounted for in current ice sheet models. Until those models include these effects, there is a danger that we may be under-appreciating the dynamic nature of the ice sheets.
References:
Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P; Janssens, I; Cappelen, J; Steffen, K; Stephens, A (2005) J. Geophys. Res.Vo. 110, D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641
Johanessen, O.M; Khvorostovsky, K; Miles, M.W; Bobylev, L.P. (2005) ScienceVo. 310 no. 5750, pp 1013-1016
Ringnot, E; Kanagaratnam, P (2006) ScienceVo. 311 no. 5763, pp 986-990
Velicogna, I; Wahr, J; Hanna, E; Huybrechts, P. (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett.Vo. 32, L05501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021948
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)
Monday, July 24, 2006
Ocean warming impacts on seabirds
This came in on one of my birding Listservs
Warmer Waters Disrupt Pacific Food Chain
Steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has rekindled
scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the coastal food
supply.
July 24, 2006 — By Marcus Wohlsen, Associated Press
FARALLON NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Calif. — On these craggy, remote islands
west of San Francisco, the largest seabird colony in the contiguous United
States throbs with life. Seagulls swarm so thick that visitors must yell to be
heard above their cries. Pelicans glide.
But the steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has
rekindled scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the
coastal food supply, threatening not just the Farallones but entire marine
ecosystems.
Tiny Cassin's auklets live much of their lives on the open ocean. But in
spring, these gray-and-white relatives of the puffin venture to isolated Pacific
outposts like the Farallones to dig deep burrows and lay their eggs.
Adult auklets usually feed their chicks with krill, the minuscule
shrimp-like crustaceans that anchor the ocean's complex food web.
But not this year. Almost none of the 20,000 pairs of Cassin's auklets
nesting in the Farallones will raise a chick that lives more than a few days, a
repeat of last year's "unprecedented" breeding failure, according to Russ
Bradley, a seabird biologist with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory who monitors
the birds on the islands.
Scientists blame changes in West Coast climate patterns for a delay in the
seasonal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from the ocean's depths for
the second year in a row. Weak winds and faltering currents have left the Gulf
of the Farallones without krill, on which Cassin's auklets and a variety of
other seabirds, fish and mammals depend for food.
"The seas are warmer. And the number of krill being produced is lower," said
Bradley as he held a Cassin's auklet chick, the only one from a study of 400
nests he expected to survive.
"Normally we would have hundreds," he said.
The failure of last year's Pacific upwelling killed seabirds from California
to British Columbia. Scientists had hoped the change was just a natural
temperature fluctuation in what is known as the California Current.
But the return of higher ocean temperatures and scarce food resources this
year has scientists wondering whether last year's erratic weather was not a
fluke but the emergence of a troubling trend.
"How many years in a row do you see this before you start raising your
eyebrows?" said Frank Schwing, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration in Pacific Grove.
Climatologists describe global warming as a worldwide rise in temperatures
caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses thought to
trap heat in the atmosphere. Predictions of global warming's effects include
rising sea levels, fiercer storms, more wildfires and warmer oceans.
Without long-term data, scientists have so far found it difficult to make
direct links between specific natural events and global warming.
But the Farallones present a special case. Researchers have kept Cassin's
auklet counts there every day since 1967. Never before have they seen such a
drop-off in numbers. That decline comes as California ocean temperatures hover
three to five degrees above average.
"One of the things that the climate models predict is that we're going to
have unpredictable weather, extreme weather, that the whole seasonal cycle of
events will not be what we expect," said Bill Peterson, a NOAA oceanographer
in Newport, Ore. "We aren't seeing normal patterns."
Perhaps nowhere is this ecological disruption felt more than here on the
Farallones, a 200-acre island chain often described as California's Galapagos.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service keeps the national wildlife refuge closed
to visitors except for a small group of scientists and volunteers who live
there year-round.
The krill-dependent whales and salmon that inhabit the surrounding waters
have not appeared to suffer from the changes in food supply. But during a visit
to the islands this summer, scientists pointed to other species feeling the
consequences.
The absence of krill has led to a collapse of the juvenile rockfish
population. This is the main food source for young of the common murre, a bird that
resembles a flying penguin. Though the murre has made a dramatic comeback
recently, with about 200,000 adults nesting on the islands this year, nearly
three-quarters of murres breeding this year are not expected to raise chicks that
survive.
"At this point it's way too late in the season for the birds to initiate
another attempt at breeding," said Peter Warzybok, a Farallones-based biologist
with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory. "They'll just have to wait around for
next year and hope that it's better."
Significant drops in murre and Cassin's auklet numbers occurred during the
El Nino years of 1983 and 1992, when warmer Pacific waters near the equator
upset weather patterns worldwide.
A January conference of more than 40 climatologists, oceanographers, and
wildlife biologists issued a report describing last year's altered coastal
climate as El Nino-like conditions in a non-El Nino year. Some researchers have
given the new climate shift its own name: "El Coyote."
The report said a "ridge" of winter air blocking winds from the Gulf of
Alaska lingered more than two months longer than normal in 2005, which delayed
the upwelling until well past the birds' breeding seasons.
"It's not just a local effect," Schwing said. "It's related to global-scale
changes in atmospheric circulation."
But it could take researchers another decade to determine whether global
warming caused those changes. Some climatologists warn against drawing overly
broad conclusions from only two years of unusual weather.
Definitive results are "not around the corner," said Nick Bond, a research
meteorologist the University of Washington who has studied the upwelling's
failure.
"We just don't know how much the deck is stacked" by the effects of global
climate change, Bond said. "It's hard to tell from just a deal or two."
But whatever the cause, the ecological outcome if the trend continues is
already clear, according to scientists.
The Cassin's auklet is unlikely to adapt to the sudden loss of its main food
source. And other animals could follow, Schwing said.
In the worst case, he said, "we could see a great depression of the entire
ecosystem."
Source: Associated Press
Warmer Waters Disrupt Pacific Food Chain
Steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has rekindled
scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the coastal food
supply.
July 24, 2006 — By Marcus Wohlsen, Associated Press
FARALLON NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Calif. — On these craggy, remote islands
west of San Francisco, the largest seabird colony in the contiguous United
States throbs with life. Seagulls swarm so thick that visitors must yell to be
heard above their cries. Pelicans glide.
But the steep decline of one bird species for the second straight year has
rekindled scientists' fears that global warming could be undermining the
coastal food supply, threatening not just the Farallones but entire marine
ecosystems.
Tiny Cassin's auklets live much of their lives on the open ocean. But in
spring, these gray-and-white relatives of the puffin venture to isolated Pacific
outposts like the Farallones to dig deep burrows and lay their eggs.
Adult auklets usually feed their chicks with krill, the minuscule
shrimp-like crustaceans that anchor the ocean's complex food web.
But not this year. Almost none of the 20,000 pairs of Cassin's auklets
nesting in the Farallones will raise a chick that lives more than a few days, a
repeat of last year's "unprecedented" breeding failure, according to Russ
Bradley, a seabird biologist with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory who monitors
the birds on the islands.
Scientists blame changes in West Coast climate patterns for a delay in the
seasonal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from the ocean's depths for
the second year in a row. Weak winds and faltering currents have left the Gulf
of the Farallones without krill, on which Cassin's auklets and a variety of
other seabirds, fish and mammals depend for food.
"The seas are warmer. And the number of krill being produced is lower," said
Bradley as he held a Cassin's auklet chick, the only one from a study of 400
nests he expected to survive.
"Normally we would have hundreds," he said.
The failure of last year's Pacific upwelling killed seabirds from California
to British Columbia. Scientists had hoped the change was just a natural
temperature fluctuation in what is known as the California Current.
But the return of higher ocean temperatures and scarce food resources this
year has scientists wondering whether last year's erratic weather was not a
fluke but the emergence of a troubling trend.
"How many years in a row do you see this before you start raising your
eyebrows?" said Frank Schwing, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration in Pacific Grove.
Climatologists describe global warming as a worldwide rise in temperatures
caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses thought to
trap heat in the atmosphere. Predictions of global warming's effects include
rising sea levels, fiercer storms, more wildfires and warmer oceans.
Without long-term data, scientists have so far found it difficult to make
direct links between specific natural events and global warming.
But the Farallones present a special case. Researchers have kept Cassin's
auklet counts there every day since 1967. Never before have they seen such a
drop-off in numbers. That decline comes as California ocean temperatures hover
three to five degrees above average.
"One of the things that the climate models predict is that we're going to
have unpredictable weather, extreme weather, that the whole seasonal cycle of
events will not be what we expect," said Bill Peterson, a NOAA oceanographer
in Newport, Ore. "We aren't seeing normal patterns."
Perhaps nowhere is this ecological disruption felt more than here on the
Farallones, a 200-acre island chain often described as California's Galapagos.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service keeps the national wildlife refuge closed
to visitors except for a small group of scientists and volunteers who live
there year-round.
The krill-dependent whales and salmon that inhabit the surrounding waters
have not appeared to suffer from the changes in food supply. But during a visit
to the islands this summer, scientists pointed to other species feeling the
consequences.
The absence of krill has led to a collapse of the juvenile rockfish
population. This is the main food source for young of the common murre, a bird that
resembles a flying penguin. Though the murre has made a dramatic comeback
recently, with about 200,000 adults nesting on the islands this year, nearly
three-quarters of murres breeding this year are not expected to raise chicks that
survive.
"At this point it's way too late in the season for the birds to initiate
another attempt at breeding," said Peter Warzybok, a Farallones-based biologist
with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory. "They'll just have to wait around for
next year and hope that it's better."
Significant drops in murre and Cassin's auklet numbers occurred during the
El Nino years of 1983 and 1992, when warmer Pacific waters near the equator
upset weather patterns worldwide.
A January conference of more than 40 climatologists, oceanographers, and
wildlife biologists issued a report describing last year's altered coastal
climate as El Nino-like conditions in a non-El Nino year. Some researchers have
given the new climate shift its own name: "El Coyote."
The report said a "ridge" of winter air blocking winds from the Gulf of
Alaska lingered more than two months longer than normal in 2005, which delayed
the upwelling until well past the birds' breeding seasons.
"It's not just a local effect," Schwing said. "It's related to global-scale
changes in atmospheric circulation."
But it could take researchers another decade to determine whether global
warming caused those changes. Some climatologists warn against drawing overly
broad conclusions from only two years of unusual weather.
Definitive results are "not around the corner," said Nick Bond, a research
meteorologist the University of Washington who has studied the upwelling's
failure.
"We just don't know how much the deck is stacked" by the effects of global
climate change, Bond said. "It's hard to tell from just a deal or two."
But whatever the cause, the ecological outcome if the trend continues is
already clear, according to scientists.
The Cassin's auklet is unlikely to adapt to the sudden loss of its main food
source. And other animals could follow, Schwing said.
In the worst case, he said, "we could see a great depression of the entire
ecosystem."
Source: Associated Press
Sunday, July 23, 2006
One Year to Save the Amazon
This is seriously bad news, a great carbon sink turns into a great carbon source.
Dying Forest: One Year to Save the Amazon
Dying Forest: One Year to Save the Amazon
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Friday, July 21, 2006
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Drought Threatens Amazon Basin
Truly alarming, a major dieback in the amazon is one of the tipping points for catastrophic global warming, since that forest is usually a carbon sink that removes CO2 from the atmosphere, but if the forest dies, it will release huge amonts instead.
Drought Threatens Amazon Basin
Drought Threatens Amazon Basin
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Saturday, July 08, 2006
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Global Wind Power Expands in 2006
Here's something that's going right.
Eco-Economy Indicators: WIND ENERGY - Global Wind Power Expands in 2006
Eco-Economy Indicators: WIND ENERGY - Global Wind Power Expands in 2006
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Friday, June 23, 2006
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
The New York Review of Books: The Threat to the Planet
Reviews of three books and a movie by the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
The New York Review of Books: The Threat to the Planet
The New York Review of Books: The Threat to the Planet
Saturday, June 17, 2006
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Monday, June 12, 2006
Saturday, June 10, 2006
NASA Shelves Climate Satellites
Faced with the most important crisis in history, NASA chooses ignorance, most likely having it's arm and policy twisted by the "it's not happening" folks in DC
NASA Shelves Climate Satellites
NASA Shelves Climate Satellites
Monday, June 05, 2006
Welcome to the Climate Crisis
By Bill McKibben, the guy who wrote "The End of Nature", where he pointed out that due to our changes to the atmosphere that there was now no place on earth untouched by man. Taht was at least fifteen yers ago.
Welcome to the Climate Crisis
Welcome to the Climate Crisis
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Sunday, May 28, 2006
Monday, May 15, 2006
Saturday, May 13, 2006
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
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